|
|
|
|
|
|
u.a.
|
Literatur
zur Bedeutung der Sonnenaktivität: (sehr
unvollständig) |
|
|
|
|
001 |
Behringer,
W. (2007) Kulturgeschichte des
Klimas: Von der Eiszeit bis zur globalen Erwärmung.- C.H.Beck.
(352 S.)
|
|
|
001/1 |
Behringer,
W., H. Lehmann und Ch. Pfister (2005)
Kulturelle
Konsequenzen der 'Kleinen Eiszeit'; Cultural Consequences of the 'Little
Ice Age' (Veröffentlichungen des Max-Planck-Instituts für
Geschichte, Band 212) (Englisch) Gebundenes Buch 1. Januar
2005. |
|
|
001/2 |
Berndt,
C., T. Feseker, T. Treude, S. Krastel, V. Liebetrau, H. Niemann,
V. J. Bertics, I. Dumke, K. Dünnbier, B. Ferré, C. Graves,
F. Gross, K. Hissmann, V. Hühnerbach, S. Krause, K. Lieser,
J. Schauer and L. Steinle (2014)
Temporal
Constraints on Hydrate-Controlled Methane Seepage off Svalbard.-
Science 17 January 2014: Vol. 343 no. 6168 pp. 284-287, DOI:
10.1126/science.1246298.
- Abstract:
"Methane
hydrate is an icelike substance that is stable at high pressure
and low temperature in continental margin sediments. Since the
discovery of a large number of gas flares at the landward termination
of the gas hydrate stability zone off Svalbard, there has been
concern that warming bottom waters have started to dissociate
large amounts of gas hydrate and that the resulting methane release
may possibly accelerate global warming. Here, we corroborate that
hydrates play a role in the observed seepage of gas, but we present
evidence that seepage off Svalbard has been ongoing for at least
3000 years and that seasonal fluctuations of 1° to 2°C
in the bottom-water temperature cause periodic gas hydrate formation
and dissociation, which focus seepage at the observed sites."
[date
of access: 17.01.2014]
|
|
|
|
|
002 |
Berner,
U. & H. Streif (2000 - Hrsg.)
Klimafakten, Der Rückblick - Ein Schlüssel für die
Zukunft.- Schweizerbart'sche Verlagsbuchhandlung, Stuttgart. (238
S.). 4. vollständig überarbeitete Auflage von
2004, mit 259 Seiten.
Sehr
zu empfehlen!!
|
|
|
003 |
Bintanja,
R., G. J. van Oldenborgh, S. S. Drijfhout, B. Wouters, C. A. Katsman
(2013) Important
role for ocean warming and increased ice-shelf melt in Antarctic
sea-ice expansion.- Nature Geoscience (2013) doi:10.1038/ngeo1767
(publ. online 31 March 2013).
- Abstract:
"Changes in sea ice significantly modulate climate change
because of its high reflective and strong insulating nature. In
contrast to Arctic sea ice, sea ice surrounding Antarctica has
expanded1, with record extent2 in 2010. This ice expansion has
previously been attributed to dynamical atmospheric changes that
induce atmospheric cooling3. Here we show that accelerated basal
melting of Antarctic ice shelves is likely to have contributed
significantly to sea-ice expansion. Specifically, we present observations
indicating that melt water from Antarcticas ice shelves
accumulates in a cool and fresh surface layer that shields the
surface ocean from the warmer deeper waters that are melting the
ice shelves. Simulating these processes in a coupled climate model
we find that cool and fresh surface water from ice-shelf melt
indeed leads to expanding sea ice in austral autumn and winter.
This powerful negative feedback counteracts Southern Hemispheric
atmospheric warming. Although changes in atmospheric dynamics
most likely govern regional sea-ice trends4, our analyses indicate
that the overall sea-ice trend is dominated by increased ice-shelf
melt. We suggest that cool sea surface temperatures around Antarctica
could offset projected snowfall increases in Antarctica, with
implications for estimates of future sea-level rise."
[date
of access: 03.04.2013]
|
|
|
004 |
BMBF
(2003)
"Herausforderung
Klimawandel"
-
3.9MB,
60 Seiten - Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung
(BMBF). Bonn / Berlin 2003 [date
of access: 07.03.05]
- S.10:
"Daher ist das [Kyoto-]Protokoll in seiner jetzigen Form
kaum geeignet, das Klima zu stabilisieren. Seine Wirkung
ist eher im politischen Bereich zu finden, da es die einzige völkerrechtliche
Basis für weitergehende Massnahmen darstellt."
- S.51:
"... die Auswirkungen des Kyoto-Protokolls sind nur
vereinzelt hochgerechnet worden. Danach scheint die im Kyoto-Protokoll
vorgesehene Reduktion der Treibhausgas-Emissionen der Industrieländer
nur einen geringen Effekt auf die Temperaturentwicklung zu haben
...".
|
|
|
005 |
Bond,
G., Kromer, B., Beer, J., Muscheler, R., Evans, M.N., Showers, W.,
Hoffmann, S., Lotti-Bond, R., Hajdas, I. and G. Bonani (2001)
Persistent solar influence on North Atlantic climate during the
Holocene.- Science 294: 2130-2136.
Sehr
zu empfehlen!! |
|
|
006 |
Borchert,
H. (2008)
"Klimawandel
und Sonnenaktivität" - Vortrag auf der Tagung der Vereinigungen
"Stahlinstitut
VDEh" und "DVS - Deutscher Verband für Schweißen
und verwandte Verfahren e.V." am 20. Februar 2008 im Stahl-Zentrum,
40237 Düsseldorf, Sohnstrasse 65, Tagungsthema: "Zur Kontroverse
um Klimawandel, CO2-Einfluss und Energiepolitik: Ist Klimaschutz in
der gegenwärtigen Form wirklich sinnvoll?" |
|
|
007 |
Borchert,
H. (2006) "Climate
Change in Central Europe in Correlation with Changes of Sun Activities"
- Climate Change and the Middle East, Past, Present and Future
- Konferenz der "Istanbul Technical University", ITU, Istanbul,
Turkey, November 20-23, 2006 (engl.) -
622 KB,
14 Seiten. |
|
|
008 |
Borchert,
H. (2006)
"Changes
of Climate, Air Pollution and Growing Season in Correlation Changes
of Sun Activities" - Workshop on Agricultural Air Quality:
State of the Science", der vom 5.-8. Juni 2006 in Potomac, Maryland,
USA (engl.) -
538 KB,
12 Seiten. |
|
|
|
|
009 |
Böttcher,
C.J.F. (1999) The
use and misuse of science in policy making.- In: Climate policy
after Kyoto, pp 40-9 (T.R. Gerholm, edit.) - Mit
Beiträgen von Eric Moberg, Wibjörn Karlén, Jarl
Ahlbeck, Tor Ragnar Gerholm, Jarl Ahlbeck, Richard S. Lindzen, Gösta
Wallin, Marian Radetzki, Karl-Axel Edin, Bert Bolin.
-
Summary:
" The Kyoto Convention recommends reductions in emissions
of CO2 and other greenhouse gases, to mitigate
the rate of climate change. Lively debate has taken place in many
countries, not least over the political and economic implications.
The basis for the Kyoto discussions was a set of studies commissioned,
compiled and published by the UN's International Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC). At first glance this scientific foundation plainly
shows that significant climate change will occur unless emissions
of greenhouse gases are sharply curtailed. On closer examination,
the scientific evidence provided in the IPCC material is far from
clear. Reputable scientists have expressed critical views about
the interpretation of the scientific results and, even more, of
the way the material is being used for policy purposes. The main
purpose of this book is to voice this critique.
To give the reader some context, a central section from the IPCC's
basic document is presented first. There follow nine papers, by
prominent natural and social scientists, in which the reasons
for their sceptical attitudes are developed. A final paper by
Professor Bert Bolin, chairman of the IPCC during the time when
most of the material was produced, provides a response and commentary
to the critique.
The aim of the editor and authors, in presenting the material
in this way, rather than as a polemical tract, is to leave open
to the reader the question: Is global warming a consequence of
man's activities, or are there other reasons; if so, is adopting
policies with significant economic consequences, a reasonable
response?"
[date
of access: 09.05.2007]
|
|
|
|
|
010 |
Braun
H., Christl M,, Rahmstorf S., Ganopolski A., Mangini A., Kubatzki
C., Roth K., Kromer B. (2005)
Possible solar origin of the 1,470-year glacial climate cycle demonstrated
in a coupled model.- Nature 438: 208 - 211.
-
Abstract:
" Many palaeoclimate records from the North Atlantic region
show a pattern of rapid climate oscillations, the so-called DansgaardOeschger
events, with a quasi-periodicity of approx. 1,470
years for the late glacial period (...). Various hypotheses
have been suggested to explain these rapid temperature shifts,
including internal oscillations in the climate system and external
forcing, possibly from the Sun (...). But whereas pronounced solar
cycles of approx. 87 and approx. 210 years are well known (...),
a approx. 1,470-year solar cycle has not been detected (...).
Here we show that an intermediate-complexity climate model with
glacial climate conditions simulates rapid climate shifts similar
to the DansgaardOeschger events with a spacing of 1,470
years when forced by periodic freshwater input into the North
Atlantic Ocean in cycles of approx. 87 and approx. 210 years.
We attribute the robust 1,470-year response time to the superposition
of the two shorter cycles, together with strongly nonlinear dynamics
and the long characteristic timescale of the thermohaline circulation.
For Holocene
conditions, similar events do not occur. We conclude
that the glacial 1,470-year climate cycles
could have been triggered by solar forcing despite the
absence of a 1,470-year solar cycle."
- "Die
Bedeutung dieser Untersuchung liegt darin, daß sie uns zeigt,
wie komplex die Reaktionen des Systems Erde sind", so Prof.
Kurt Roth, Direktor des Instituts für Umweltphysik der Universität
Heidelberg. "Während bestimmter Zeiten, hier der Eiszeit,
reagiert es extrem empfindlich auf Einflüsse von außen.
Die
Zeitskala der Reaktion entspricht dabei nicht immer der Zeitskala
des Auslösers. Dies ist eine wesentliche
Erkenntnis, die auch Eingang in das aktuelle Verständnis
unseres Klimasystems finden wird."
(Zit. aus: "Schwankende
Sonnenaktivität löste Klimawechsel aus" - 3Sat
- Nano) [date
of access: 09.05.2007]
|
|
|
011 |
Bray,
D. & H. von Storch (2017)
The Normative Orientations of Climate Scientists.- Sci Eng
Ethics 23:1351 - 1367 DOI 10.1007/s11948-014-9605-1. [date
of access: 09.05.2007]
- Abstract:
"In
1942 Robert K. Merton tried to demonstrate the structure of the
normative system of science by specifying the norms that characterized
it. The norms were assigned the abbreviation CUDOs: Communism,
Universalism, Dis-interestedness, and Organized skepticism. Using
the results of an on-line survey of climate scientists concerning
the norms of science, this paper explores
the climate scientists subscription to these norms.
The data suggests that while Mertons CUDOs remain the overall
guiding moral principles, they are not fully endorsed or present
in the conduct of climate scientists: there is a tendency to withhold
results until publication, there is the intention of maintaining
property rights, there is external influence defining research
and the tendency to assign the significance of authored work according
to the status of the author rather than content of the paper.These
are contrary to the norms of science as proposed by Robert
K. Merton."
|
|
|
012 |
Briffa,
K.R., Osborn, T.J. and Schweingruber, F.H.
(2004)
Large-scale
Temperature inferences from tree rings: a review.- Global
& Planetary Change 40: 11-26. -
16 S.
- Abstract:
"This paper is concerned with dendroclimatic research aimed
at representing the history of very large-scale temperature changes.
It describes recent analyses of the data from a widespread network
of tree-ring chronologies, made up of ring width and densitometric
measurement data spanning three to six centuries. The network
was built over many years from trees selected to maximise their
sensitivity to changing temperature. This strategy was adopted
so that temperature reconstructions might be achieved at both
regional and very large spatial scales. The focus here is on the
use of one growth parameter: maximum latewood density (MXD). The
detailed nature of the temperature sensitivity of MXD across the
whole network has been explored and the dominant common influence
of mean AprilSeptember temperature on MXD variability is
demonstrated. Different approaches to reconstructing past temperature
for this season include the production of detailed year-by-year
gridded maps and wider regional integrations in the form of subcontinental
and quasi-hemispheric-scale histories of temperature variability
spanning some six centuries. These hemispheric summer
series can be compared with other reconstructions of temperature
changes for the Northern Hemisphere over the last millennium.
The tree-ring-based temperature reconstructions show the clear
cooling effect of large explosive volcanic eruptions. They
also exhibit greater century-timescale variability than is apparent
in the other hemispheric series and suggest that the late 15th
and the 16th centuries were cooler than indicated by some other
data. However, in many tree-ring chronologies, we do not
observe the expected rate of ring density increases that would
be compatible with observed late 20th century warming. This changing
climate sensitivity may be the result of other environmental factors
that have, since the 1950s, increasingly acted to reduce tree-ring
density below the level expected on the basis of summer temperature
changes. This prevents us from claiming
unprecedented hemispheric warming during recent decades on the
basis of these tree-ring density data alone. Here we show
very preliminary results of an investigation of the links between
recent changes in MXD and ozone (the latter assumed to be associated
with the incidence of UV radiation at the ground). D 2003 Elsevier
B.V. All rights reserved."
|
|
|
|
|
013 |
Brook,
E.J. (2005) Tiny bubbles tell all.-
Science, vol. 310, no5752, pp. 1285-1287.
- Abstract:
"Our knowledge of long-term human effects on greenhouse gas
levels in the atmosphere comes from air trapped in ice cores taken
from polar ice sheets. These ice core samples allow researchers
to place modern changes in the context of natural variations over
hundreds of thousands of years. In his Perspective, Brook discusses
results reported in the same issue by Siegenthaler et al. and
by Spahni et al. based on new samples obtained by the European
Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA). The new long records
of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide from EPICA extend
the window on greenhouse gas levels to 650,000 years. The results
confirm that the modern atmosphere is highly anomalous and reinforce
the view that greenhouse gases and climate are intimately related."
Source: ScienceMag
[date
of access: 30.04.07]
Anmerkung: In den Abbildungen
zeigen die mehr oder weniger parallelen Verläufe der Methan-
und Kohlendioxidgehalte sowie der Temperaturdynamik deutlich,
dass der Anstieg der Kohlendioxidgehalte auffallend NACH der Temperaturzunahme
erfolgt.
|
|
|
014 |
Bryden,
Harry L., et al. (2005)Slowing
of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 25° N.-
Nature 438: 655-57 [doi: 10.1038/nature04385].
-
Abstract:
"The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation carries
warm upper waters into far-northern latitudes and returns cold
deep waters southward across the Equator1. Its heat transport
makes a substantial contribution to the moderate climate of
maritime and continental Europe, and any slowdown in the overturning
circulation would have profound implications for climate change.
A transatlantic section along latitude 25° N has been used
as a baseline for estimating the overturning circulation and
associated heat transport2, 3, 4. Here we analyse a new 25°
N transatlantic section and compare it with four previous sections
taken over the past five decades.
The
comparison suggests that the Atlantic
meridional overturning circulation has slowed by about 30 per
cent between 1957 and 2004.
Whereas the northward transport in the Gulf Stream across 25°
N has remained nearly constant, the slowing is evident both
in a 50 per cent larger southward-moving mid-ocean recirculation
of thermocline waters, and also in a 50 per cent decrease in
the southward transport of lower North Atlantic Deep Water between
3,000 and 5,000 m in depth. In 2004, more of the northward Gulf
Stream flow was recirculating back southward in the thermocline
within the subtropical gyre, and less was returning southward
at depth."
|
|
|
015 |
Bunde,
A., Jan F. Eichner, Jan W. Kantelhardt und Shlomo Havlin (2005)
"Long-Term Memory: A Natural Mechanism for the Clustering of
Extreme Events and Anomalous Residual Times in Climate Records".-
Physical Review Letters 94, 048701. |
|
|
|
Vgl. dazu
auch:
Govindan et al. (2002)
Global climate
models violate scaling of the observed atmospheric variability.
Eichner et al. (2003) Power-law
persistence and trends in the atmosphere: A detailed study of
long temperature records.
|
|
|
015/1 |
Caesar,
L., G.D. McCarthy, D.J.R. Thornalley, N. Cahill & S. Rahmstorf
(2021)
Current
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation weakest in last millennium.
Nat. Geosci. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00699-z
Abstract:
"The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)one
of Earths major ocean circulation systemsredistributes
heat on our planet and has a major impact on climate. Here, we
compare a variety of published proxy records to reconstruct the
evolution of the AMOC since about ad 400. A fairly consistent
picture of the AMOC emerges: after a long and relatively stable
period, there was an initial weakening starting in the nineteenth
century, followed by a second, more rapid, decline in the mid-twentieth
century, leading to the weakest state of the AMOC occurring in
recent decades." [date
of access: 01.03.2021]
|
|
|
|
|
016 |
Camp, Charles
D. and Ka Kit Tung (2007) Surface
warming by the solar cycle as revealed by the composite mean difference
projection.- Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) paper 10.1029/2007GL030207,
2007 (Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington,
Seattle, Washington, U.S.A.)
"The
existence of a long-term trend in solar output is controversial,
but its periodic change within an 11-year cycle has been measured
by satellites.
To
assess how this less-controversial oscillatory forcing affects
climate on Earth, Camp and Tung compare surface temperature measurements
across the globe between years of solar maximum (with higher heat
output) and years of solar minimum.
They
find that times of high solar activity are on average 0.2º
C warmer than times of low solar activity,
and that there is a polar amplification of the warming. This result
is the first to document a statistically
significant globally coherent temperature response to the solar
cycle, the authors note." ScienceDaily
(Aug. 2, 2007)
|
|
|
017 |
Charlson,
Robert J., Francisco PJ Valero, John H. Seinfeld (2005)
"ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE: In Search of Balance".-
Science Magazine, 1. April 2005, Vol. 308, p.806-807.
Abstract:
"Emissions of gases such as carbon dioxide are responsible
for an enhanced greenhouse effect, but human-made changes in Earth's
reflectivity via changes in clouds and aerosols may partly counteract
the resulting warming. In their Perspective, Charlson et al. discuss
attempts to estimate the changes in reflectivity (or albedo) both
via observations and through model studies. Papers in this issue
by Wielicki et al., Pinker et al., and Wild et al. report such
observational estimates. However, Charlson et al. conclude that
the uncertainties are still large
and that sustained, direct, and simultaneous observations
of albedo with all methods at researchers' disposal are necessary
to resolve this important question of how
much albedo is changing as a result of human activities."
|
|
|
017/1 |
Christy,
J.R. (2019)
The
Tropical Skies - Falsifying climate alarm.- The Global Warming
Policy Foundation GWPF, Note17.
[18 S.]
[date
of access: 18.10.2019] |
|
|
017/2 |
Christy,
J. R.
(2016)
U.S. House Committee on Science, Space & Technology, 2 Feb 2016,
Testimony
of John R. Christy, University of Alabama in Huntsville.
[23 S.]
- on (1.1)
Upper air temperature data from satellites and balloons (p.1),
- on (1.2)
Surface temperature issues (p.6),
- on (1.2.b)
The new NOAA surface temperature dataset (p.7),
- on (2) How
well do we understandclimatechange? (10),
- on (3) Climate
Impact of Regulations(i.e. Paris)Will Not Be Attributable or Detectable
(p.12),
- Summary (p.15).
- Appendix
A: Alleged impacts of human-induced climate changes regarding
extreme events, The Disappointing Scientific Process,
- Summary
of Extract:
"The messages of the two points outlined in the extract
above are: (1) the claims about increases in frequency and
intensity of extreme events are generally not supported by
actual observations and, (2) official information about climate
science is largely controlled by agencies through (a) funding
choices for research and (b) by the carefully-selected (i.e.
biased) authorship of reports such as the EPA Endangerment
Finding and the National Climate Assessment."
John
Christy is Professor of Atmospheric Science and Director of the
Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville
or UAH. He is also Alabama's State Climatologist and has recently
served as a Lead Author of the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC). He
belongs to the "so-called climate skeptics".
Reaktion
von "RealClimate" vom 7. Mai 2016, dem Sprachrohr der
AGW-Apologeten, finden Sie
HIER.
|
|
|
017/3 |
Christy,
J. R.
(2003)
U.S. House Committee on Science, Space & Technology, 13 May 2003,
Testimony
of Dr. John Christy Before the U.S. House of Representatives' Committee
on Resources. [nicht mehr online]
Volume 6, Number 22: 28 May 2003 |
|
|
017/4 |
Christy,
J.R., (2002) When was the hottest
summer? A State Climatologist struggles for an answer. Bulletin
of the American Meteorological Society 83: 723-734. |
|
|
|
|
018 |
Christy,
J. R., W. B. Norris, R. W. Spencer, and J. J. Hnilo (2007),
Tropospheric
temperature change since 1979 from tropical radiosonde and satellite
measurements, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D06102, doi:10.1029/2005JD006881.
Abstract:
"Temperature change of the lower troposphere (LT) in the
tropics (20°S20°N) during the period 19792004
is examined using 58 radiosonde (sonde) stations and the microwave-based
satellite data sets of the University of Alabama in Huntsville
(UAH v5.2) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS v2.1). At the 29 stations
that make both day and night observations, the average nighttime
trend (+0.12 K decade-1) is 0.05 K decade-1 more positive than
that for the daytime (+0.07 K decade-1) in the unadjusted observations,
an unlikely physical possibility indicating adjustments are needed.
At the 58 sites the UAH data indicate a trend of +0.08 K decade-1,
the RSS data, +0.15. When the largest discontinuities in the sondes
are detected and removed through comparison with UAH data, the
trend of day and night releases combined becomes +0.09, and using
RSS data, +0.12. Relative to several data sets, the RSS data show
a warming shift, broadly occurring in 1992, of between +0.07 K
and +0.13 K. Because the shift occurs at the time NOAA-12 readings
began to be merged into the satellite data stream and large NOAA-11
adjustments were applied, the discrepancy appears to be due to
bias adjustment procedures. Several comparisons are consistent
with a 26-year trend and error estimate for the UAH LT product
for the full tropics of +0.05 ± 0.07, which is very likely
less than the tropical surface trend of +0.13 K decade-1."
|
|
|
|
|
|
Datenbasis
der University of Alabama at Huntsville |
|
Abb. A2-28/01:
"Temperaturabweichungen" (Variations
from average) ab Januar 1979. Temperaturen der unteren Troposphäre
mit Hilfe von Satellitenmessungen sind aktuell der "zuverlässigste
Weg zur Analyse globaler Temperaturveränderungen, da sie die
gesamte Atmosphäre gleichmäßig erfassen und Messfehler
durch Temperatureinflüsse urbaner Ballungszentren vermeiden.
"Folgende
Veränderungen haben sich seit 1979 ergeben:
- globaler
Trend pro Dekade: + 0,085 °C
- nördliche
Hemisphäre: + 0,155 °C
- südliche
Hemisphäre: + 0,014 °C"
|
|
|
019 |
Christy,
J.R. Roy W. Spencer, William B. Norris, William D. Braswell, and
David E. Parker (2003) Error estimates
of Version 5.0 of MSU-AMSU bulk atmospheric temperatures.- Journal
of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 20: 613-629.
- Abstract:
"Deep-layer temperatures derived from satellite-borne microwave
sensors since 1979 are revised (version 5.0) to account for 1)
a change from microwave sounding units (MSUs) to the advanced
MSUs (AMSUs) and 2) an improved diurnal drift adjustment for tropospheric
products. AMSU data, beginning in 1998, show characteristics indistinguishable
from the earlier MSU products. MSUAMSU error estimates are
calculated through comparisons with radiosonde-simulated bulk
temperatures for the lowmiddle troposphere (TLT), midtroposphere
(TMT), and lower stratosphere (TLS.) Monthly (annual) standard
errors for global mean anomalies of TLT satellite temperatures
are estimated at 0.10°C (0.07°C). The TLT (TMT) trend
for January 1979 to April 2002 is estimated as +0.06° (+0.02°)
±0.05°C decade1 (95% confidence interval). Error
estimates for TLS temperatures are less well characterized due
to significant heterogeneities in the radiosonde data at high
altitudes, though evidence is presented to suggest that since
1979 the trend is -0.51° ± 0.10°C decade1."
|
|
|
020 |
Christy,
J.R. Roy W. Spencer (2003)
Global
Temperature Report 1978-2003.- Earth System Science CenterThe
University of Alabama in Huntsville. (December 8, 2003)
[18 S.] |
|
|
|
|
021 |
Chylek,
P., Dubey, M.K. and Lesins, G. (2006)
Greenland warming of 1920-1930 and 1995-2005.- Geophysical
Research Letters 33: 10.1029/2006GL026510.
- Abstract:
We provide an analysis of Greenland temperature records to compare
the current (19952005) warming period with the previous
(19201930) Greenland warming. We find
that the current Greenland warming is not unprecedented in recent
Greenland history. Temperature increases in the two warming periods
are of a similar magnitude, however, the rate of warming
in 19201930 was about 50% higher than that in 19952005.
|
|
|
022 |
Chylek,
P., Box, J.E. and Lesins, G. (2004)
Global warming and the Greenland ice sheet.- Climatic Change, Vol.
63, Numbers 1-2, pp. 201-221 (March 2004)
- Abstract:
"The Greenland coastal temperatures have followed the early
20th century global warming trend. Since 1940, however, the Greenland
coastal stations data have undergone predominantly a cooling trend.
At the summit of the Greenland ice sheet the summer average
temperature has decreased at the rate of 2.2 °C per decade
since the beginning of the measurements in 1987. This suggests
that the Greenland ice sheet and coastal regions are not following
the current global warming trend. A considerable and rapid
warming over all of coastal Greenland occurred in the 1920s when
the average annual surface air temperature rose between 2 and
4 °C in less than ten years (at some stations the increase
in winter temperature was as high as 6 °C). This
rapid warming, at a time when the change in anthropogenic production
of greenhouse gases was well below the current level, suggests
a high natural variability in the regional climate.
High anticorrelations (r = -0.84 to -0.93) between the NAO
(North Atlantic Oscillation) index and Greenland temperature time
series suggest a physical connection between these processes.
Therefore, the future changes in the NAO and Northern Annular
Mode may be of critical consequence to the future temperature
forcing of the Greenland ice sheet melt rates."
|
|
|
023 |
CLARK,
W.C. (1982, edit.)
Carbon
dioxide review.- Oxford University Press, New York 1982, Pp. 469. |
|
|
|
- "Abstract:
The buildup of CO2 is a reality, monitored with increasing precision
since 1957 and inferred for much earlier dates. A statistical
section gives the monitored values to 1980, as well as a review
of a long series of measurements made at Mauna Loa by the pioneers
of such monitoring, Charles D. Keeling, Robert B. Bacastow, and
Timothy P. Whorf. The book discusses internal transport processes
in the ocean, of ocean-atmosphere interaction, of the magnitude
of forest and soil carbon wastage, of the future course of fossil-fuel
consumption. Yet something else emerges, too: if the CO/sub 2/
buildup continues; if the big general circulation models are right
about its impact on climate, and if we have not miscalculated
the potential role of the oceans, then we face a climatic change
in the next century and a half like nothing the post-glacial world,
and hence civilized humanity, has seen."
|
|
|
024 |
KIHZ-Projekt.
(bis 2003) Dieser
KIHZ Internet-Auftritt dient der Information über das KIHZ Projekt
und wird seit 2003 nicht mehr aktualisiert.
[50 S.] -
aus dem GFZ-Potsdam. [last
date of access: 15.11.2019] |
|
Sehr
emphehlenswert! |
|
|
025 |
Crok,
M. (2005)
Risse
im Klima-Konsens.-
Techn. Review 03/2005, Report, Ein deutschsprachiger Ableger
des Technology Review Magazins vom MIT. |
|
|
|
|
026 |
Cubasch,
U. (2002) Variabilität der Sonne
und Klimaschwankungen.-
promet, Jahrg. 28, Nr. 3/4, S.123-132.
- File [nicht mehr online]
- "Zusammenfassung:
Um den Effekt der Sonnenvariabilität auf das Klima zu berechnen,
treiben zwei Schätzungen der Sonnenintensitätsvariationen
während der letzten drei Jahrhunderte numerische Simulationen
an. Die Modelle, die dafür eingesetzt werden, sind dieselben
gekoppelten Ozean-Atmosphären-Klimamodelle, die angewendet
werden, um den anthropogenen Einfluss auf das Klima zu berechnen.
Alle Simulationen zeigen, dass die bodennahe
Lufttemperatur und die vertikale Temperaturverteilung in der Atmosphäre
auf die Variabilität der Sonneneinstrahlung reagieren. Es
gibt sogar Anzeichen, dass die thermohaline Zirkulation im Nordatlantik
durch grosse Amplitudenschwankungen in der Sonneneinstrahlung
beeinflusst wird. In der Stratosphäre dagegen, ergeben
sich deutliche Unterschiede zwischen den Antwortmustern, wie sie
beobachtet werden und wie sie derzeit simuliert werden. Diese
Unterschiede sind besonders deutlich beim 11-Jahres Zyklus. Eine
ungenügende Repräsentation der Stratosphäre oder
eine fehlende Parametrisierung, die ein Anwachsen der stratosphärischen
Ozonkonzentration durch die vermehrte UV-Einstrahlung bei einem
Anwachsen der Sonnenintensität beim Maximum des solaren Zyklus
beschreibt, könnte dafür die Ursache sein."
|
|
|
027 |
Cubasch,
U. & D. Kasang (2000)
Anthropogener Klimawandel.- Klett-Perthes- Verlag, Stuttgart, ISBN
3-623-00856-7, 128 S.
|
|
|
028 |
Cubasch
U. & R. Voss R. (2000) The Influence
of Total Solar Irradiance on Climate.- Space Science Reviews, Volume
94, Numbers 1-2, November 2000 , pp. 185-198(14)
- Abstract:
"To estimate the effect of the solar variability on the climate,
two estimates of the solar intensity variations during the last
three centuries have been used as forcing in numerical simulations.
The model employed to carry out the experiments was the same coupled
global ocean-atmosphere model used in a number of studies to assess
the effect of the anthropogenic greenhouse gases on climate. The
near surface temperature and the tropospheric temperature distribution
shows a clear response to the variability of the solar input.
Even the thermohaline circulation reacts on the large amplitudes
in the forcing. In the stratosphere, the response pattern is similar
as in the observations, however, the 11-year cycle found in the
forcing data does not excite an appreciable response. This might
be due to the missing parameterisation of the increase in the
UV-radiation at the solar cycle maximum and the connected increase
of the stratospheric ozone concentration."
|
|
|
029 |
Cubasch,
U., E. Zorita, F. K. Kaspar, J.F. Gonzales-Rouco, H. von Storch und
K. Prömmel, (2006) Simulation
of the role of solar and orbital forcing on climate. Adv. In Space
Res., 37, 1629-1634, doi: 10.1016/j.asr.2005.04.076. |
|
|
|
|
030 |
Cubasch,
U., E. Zorita, J.F. Gonzalez-Rouco, H.v. Storch and I. Fast (2004)
Simulating
the last 1000 years with a 3d coupled model.
- File, 17 S.
- Abstract
- page 1:
"A
simulation of the climate of the last millennium with a state-of-the
art ocean-atmosphere climate model, which has been forced with
solar variability, volcanism and the change in anthropogenic greenhouse
gases, shows global temperatures during the Little Ice Age of
the order of 1 K colder than present. This is markedly colder
than some accepted empirical reconstructions from proxy data.
In this simulation temperature minima are reached in the Late
Maunder Minimum, (around 1700 A.D.) and the Dalton Minimum (1820
A.D.), with global temperature about 1.2 K colder than today.
The model also produces a Medieval Warm
Period around 1100 A.D., with global temperatures approximately
equal to present values. A combination of model and tree-ring
data leads to an improved temperature estimate for Northern Europe,
but not for Southern Europe."
- Abstract
- page 8:
" The discrepancies between model simulation and
empirical reconstructions are discussed in terms of the climate
sensitivity to changes in the solar constant. We find that whereas
the model response to changes is roughly constant along the simulation
and agrees with the sensitivity derived from instrumental data,
the empirical reconstructions show a lower sensitivity in the
20th century, and a much lower one in the past centuries, thus
pointing to potential inconsistencies between
the reconstructed temperature and solar constant. It has
been tried to use the model data to fill gaps in the proxy-data
records. This produces an improved temperature curve for northern
Europe. Problems, however arise in southern Europe."
|
|
|
|
|
031 |
Cubasch,
U., B. D. Santer & G. C. Hegerl (1995)
Klimamodelle
- wo stehen wir? - Phys. Bl. 4, 269-276.
- Statement:
"Am 20. Februar 1995 meldeten es alle Nachrichtenagenturen:
Mit 95prozentiger Wahrscheinlichkeit ist die in den Klimabeobachtungen
verzeichnete globale Erwärmung um 0,7 °C seit Beginn
der Industrialisierung anthropogenen Ursprungs. Dieses Ergebnis
einer komplexen Analyse von Klimamodellrechnungen am Deutschen
Klimarechenzentrum in Hamburg gab dessen Direktor Klaus Hasselmann
an diesem Tag der Bundesregierung bekannt. Der folgende Beitrag
von Mitarbeitern dieses Zentrums ist eine kritische Analyse der
Methodik von Klimasimultationsrechnungen. Er beschreibt, wie man
mit Hilfe von gekoppelten Ozean-Atmosphäre-Modellen zu einer
solchen Aussage gelangt, welche Probleme dabei auftreten und wo
die Grenzen der heutigen Modelle liegen. (Red.)"
|
|
|
|
|
032 |
Cunningham
et al. (2007)Temporal
Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at
26.5°N.- Science 17 August 2007: Vol. 317. no. 5840,
pp. 935 - 938, DOI: 10.1126/science.1141304
- Abstract:
"The vigor of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
(MOC) is thought to be vulnerable to global warming, but its short-term
temporal variability is unknown so changes inferred from sparse
observations on the decadal time scale of recent climate change
are uncertain. We combine continuous measurements of the MOC (beginning
in 2004) using the purposefully designed transatlantic Rapid Climate
Change array of moored instruments deployed along 26.5°N,
with time series of Gulf Stream transport and surface-layer Ekman
transport to quantify its intra-annual variability. The year-long
average overturning is 18.7 ± 5.6 sverdrups (Sv) (range:
4.0 to 34.9 Sv, where 1 Sv = a flow of ocean water of 106 cubic
meters per second). Interannual changes in the overturning can
be monitored with a resolution of 1.5 Sv."
|
|
|
|
|
033 |
Dahl-Jensen,
D. et al. (2013)
Eemian
interglacial reconstructed from a Greenland folded ice core.-
Nature 493, 489494 (24 January 2013) doi:10.1038/nature11789
(Published online 23 January 2013)
- Abstract:
"Efforts to extract a Greenland ice core with a complete
record of the Eemian interglacial (130,000 to 115,000 years ago)
have until now been unsuccessful. The response of the Greenland
ice sheet to the warmer-than-present climate of the Eemian has
thus remained unclear. Here we present the new North Greenland
Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) ice core and show only
a modest ice-sheet response to the strong warming in the early
Eemian. We reconstructed the Eemian record from folded ice using
globally homogeneous parameters known from dated Greenland and
Antarctic ice-core records. On the basis of water stable isotopes,
NEEM surface temperatures after the onset of the Eemian (126,000
years ago) peaked at 8 ± 4 degrees Celsius above the mean
of the past millennium, followed by a gradual cooling that was
probably driven by the decreasing summer insolation. Between 128,000
and 122,000 years ago, the thickness of the northwest Greenland
ice sheet decreased by 400 ± 250 metres, reaching surface
elevations 122,000 years ago of 130 ± 300 metres lower
than the present. Extensive surface melt occurred at the NEEM
site during the Eemian, a phenomenon witnessed when melt layers
formed again at NEEM during the exceptional heat of July 2012.
With additional warming, surface melt might become more common
in the future".
|
|
|
|
|
034 |
Dansgaard,
W., S. J. Johnsen, H. B. Clausen, D. Dahl-Jensen, N. S. Gundestrup,
C. U. Hammer, C. S. Hvidberg, J. P. Steffensen, A. E. Sveinbjörnsdottir,
J. Jouzel & G. Bond (1993)
Evidence
for general instability of past climate from a 250-kyr ice-core record.-
Nature 364, 218 - 220 (15 July 1993); doi:10.1038/364218a0
-
Abstract:
"RECENT results (...) from two ice cores drilled in central
Greenland have revealed large, abrupt climate changes of at least
regional extent during the late stages of the last glaciation,
suggesting that climate in the North Atlantic region is able to
reorganize itself rapidly, perhaps even within a few decades.
Here we present a detailed stable-isotope record for the full
length of the Greenland Ice-core Project Summit ice core, extending
over the past 250 kyr according to a calculated timescale. We
find that climate instability was not confined to the last glaciation,
but appears also to have been marked during the last interglacial
(as explored more fully in a companion paper (..)) and during
the previous SaaleHolstein glacial cycle. This
is in contrast with the extreme stability
of the Holocene, suggesting that recent climate stability may
be the exception rather than the rule. The last interglacial
seems to have lasted longer than is implied by the deep-sea SPECMAP
record (...), in agreement with other land-based observations
(...). We suggest that climate instability in the early part of
the last interglacial may have delayed the melting of the Saalean
ice sheets in America and Eurasia, perhaps accounting for this
discrepancy."
|
|
|
035 |
Dansgaard,
W., and S. J. Johnsen (1969)
A
flow model and a time scale for the ice core from Camp Century,
Greenland.- J. Glaciol. 8(53):215-223.
-
Abstract:
"A
flow model is described for the Camp Century area in Greenland.
The horizontal velocity profile along the core is assumed to be
uniform from the surface down to y = 400 m above the bottom. Below
this level, the horizontal velocity v x , is assumed to decrease
proportionally to y. Furthermore, at a given y, v x is assumed
to be proportional to the distance x from the ice divide. The
resulting vertical strain-rate under steady-state conditions gives
the age of the ice as a function of y. The flow model has explained
the measured temperature profile, and the time scale has been
verified by comparison between observed stable isotope variations
and past climatic changes (at least 70 000 years back in time)
estimated by other methods."
-
Zusammenfassung:
"Für
das Gebiet von Camp Century in Grönland wird ein Fliessmodell
beschrieben. Das Horizontalgeschwindigkeitsprofil entlang des
Kerns wird von der Oberfläche bis zu y = 400 m über
dem Boden als gleichförmig angenommen. Darunter wird eine
Abnahme der Horizontalgeschwindigkeit v x proportional zu y vorausgesetzt.
Weiterhin wird unterstellt. dass sich für ein gegebenes y
v x proportional zur Entfernung x von der Eisscheide verhält.
Die resultierende vertikale Verformungsgeschwindigkeit unter stetigen
Bedingungen ergibt das Alter des Eiscs als eine Funktion von y.
Das Fliessmodell erklärt das gemessene Temperaturprofil:
die Zeitskala wird durch einen Vergleich zwischen beobachteten
Variationen stabiler Isotope und früheren Klimaschwankungen
(zumindest in den letzten 70 000 Jahren), die mit anderen Methoden
abgeschätzt werden, bestätigt."
|
|
|
036 |
Dansgaard,
W., S. J. Johnsen, J. Møller, C. C. Langway Jr. (1969)
One Thousand Centuries of Climatic Record from Camp Century on the
Greenland Ice Sheet.- Science 17 Oct 1969: Vol. 166, Issue 3903,
pp. 377-380, DOI: 10.1126/science.166.3903.377.
- "Abstract:
A correlation of time with depth has been evaluated for the Camp
Century, Greenland, 1390 meter deep ice core. Oxygen isotopes
in approximately 1600 samples throughout the core have been analyzed.
Long-term variations in the isotopic composition of the ice reflect
the climatic changes during the past nearly 100,000 years. Climatic
oscillations with periods of 120, 940, and 13,000 years are observed."
|
|
|
037 |
Dorale
et al. (2010) Sea-Level Highstand
81,000 Years Ago in Mallorca.- Science 12 February 2010:
Vol. 327. no. 5967, pp. 860 - 863, DOI: 10.1126/science.1181725 |
|
|
|
- Science-Remarks:
"Sea-level rises and falls as Earth's giant ice sheets shrink
and grow. It has been thought that sea level around 81,000 years
ago - well into the last glacial period - was 15 to 20 meters
below that of today and, thus, that the ice sheets were more extensive.
Dorale et al. (p. 860; see the Perspective by Edwards) now challenge
this view. A speleothem that has been intermittently submerged
in a cave on the island of Mallorca was dated to show that, historically,
sea level was more than a meter above its present height. This
data implies that temperatures were as high as or higher than
now, even though the concentration of CO2
in
the atmosphere was much lower."
- Abstract:
"Global sea level and Earths climate are closely linked.
Using speleothem encrustations from coastal caves on the island
of Mallorca, we determined that western Mediterranean relative
sea level was ~1 meter above modern sea level ~81,000 years ago
during marine isotope stage (MIS) 5a. Although our findings seemingly
conflict with the eustatic sea-level curve of far-field sites,
they corroborate an alternative view that MIS 5a was at least
as ice-free as the present, and they challenge the prevailing
view of MIS 5 sea-level history and certain facets of ice-age
theory."
|
|
|
038 |
Dowdeswell,
J. A. & J. W. C. White (1995)
Greenland
Ice Core Records and Rapid Climate Change.- Philosophical Transactions:
Physical Sciences and Engineering, Vol. 352, No. 1699, The Arctic
and Environmental Change (Aug. 15, 1995), pp. 359-371, Published by:
Royal Society. |
|
|
|
- "Abstract:
Long ice cores from Greenland yield records of annually resolved
climate change for the past ten to twenty thousand years, and
decadal resolution for one hundred thousand years or more. These
cores are ideally suited to determine the rapidity with which
major climate changes occur. The termination of the Younger Dryas,
which marks the end of the last glacial period, appears to have
occurred in less than a human lifetime in terms of oxygen isotopic
evidence (a proxy for temperature), in less than a generation
(20 years) for dust content and deuterium excess (proxies for
winds and sea-surface conditions), and in only a few years for
the accumulation rate of snow. Similarly rapid changes have been
observed for stadial-interstadial climate shifts (Dansgaard-Oeschger
cycles) which punctuate the climate of the last glacial period.
These changes appear to be too rapid to be attributed to external
orbital forcings, and may result from internal instabilities in
the Earth's atmosphere-ocean system or periodic massive iceberg
discharges associated with ice sheet instability (Heinrich events).
In contrast, the Holocene climate of the Arctic appears to have
been relatively stable. However, the potential for unstable interglacials,
with very rapid, shortlived climatic deteriorations, has been
raised by results from the lower part of the GRIP ice core. These
results have not been confirmed by other ice cores, notably the
nearby GISP2 core.
Evidence
from other records of climate during the Eemian interglacial have
yielded mixed results, and the potential for rapid climate change
during interglacial periods remains one of the most intriguing
gaps in our understanding of the nature of major Quaternary climate
change."
|
|
|
039 |
Editorial
(1994)
IPCC's
ritual on global warming.- Nature, 1994. 371: 269. (Published:
22 September 1994) |
|
|
040 |
Eichner,
J. F., E. Koscielny-Bunde, A. Bunde, S. Havlin, and H.-J. Schellnhuber
(2003) Power-law persistence and
trends in the atmosphere: A detailed study of long temperature records.-
PHYSICAL REVIEW E 68, 046133..
|
|
|
|
- Excerpt
'IV. DISCUSSION':
"...
When analyzing warming phenomena in the atmosphere, it is essential
to employ methods that can distinguish, in a systematic way, between
trends and long-term correlationsin contradistinction to
a number of conventional schemes that have been applied in the
past. These schemes run the risk of mixing
up the correlatedness of natural climate system variability with
entire regime shifts enforced by anthropogenic interference through
greenhouse gas emissions. The fact
that we found it difficult to discern warming trends at many stations
that are not located in rapidly developing urban areas may indicate
that the actual increase in global temperature caused by anthropogenic
perturbation is less pronounced than estimated in the last IPCC
(...) report."
|
|
|
|
Vgl. dazu
auch:
Govindan et al. (2002)
Global
climate models violate scaling of the observed atmospheric variability.
Bunde et al. (2005) Long-Term
Memory: A Natural Mechanism for the Clustering of Extreme Events
and Anomalous Residual Times in Climate Records.
|
|
|
041 |
Essenhigh,
Robert H. (2006) Prediction of the
Standard Atmosphere Profiles of Temperature, Pressure, and Density
with Height for the lower Atmosphere by Solution of the (S-S) Integral
Equations of Transfer and Evaluation of the Potential for Profile
Perturbation by Combustion Emissions.- Energy & Fuels 20: 1057-1067.
|
|
|
|
|
042 |
Ferguson,
R.P. & J. Veizer (2007) Coupling
of water and carbon fluxes via the terrestrial biosphere and its
significance to the Earth's climate system.- Journal of Geophysical
Research, Vol. 112, D24S06, oi:10.1029/2007JD008431, 2007
- Abstract:
"Terrestrial water vapor fluxes represent one of the largest
movements of mass and energy in the Earth's outer spheres, yet
the relative contributions of abiotic water vapor fluxes and those
that are regulated solely by the physiology of plants remain poorly
constrained. By interpreting differences in the oxygen-18 and
deuterium content of precipitation and river water, a methodology
was developed to partition plant transpiration (T) from the evaporative
flux that occurs directly from soils and water bodies (E d ) and
plant surfaces (In). The methodology was applied to fifteen large
watersheds in North America, South America, Africa, Australia,
and New Guinea, and results indicated that approximately two thirds
of the annual water flux from the "water-limited" ecosystems
that are typical of higher-latitude regions could be attributed
to T. In contrast to "water-limited" watersheds, where
T comprised 55% of annual precipitation, T in high-rainfall, densely
vegetated regions of the tropics represented a smaller proportion
of precipitation and was relatively constant, defining a plateau
beyond which additional water input by precipitation did not correspond
to higher T values. In response to variable water input by precipitation,
estimates of T behaved similarly to net primary productivity,
suggesting that in conformity with small-scale measurements, the
terrestrial water and carbon cycles are inherently coupled via
the biosphere. Although the estimates of T are admittedly first-order,
they offer a conceptual perspective on the
dynamics of energy exchange between terrestrial systems and the
atmosphere, where the carbon cycle is essentially driven by solar
energy via the water cycle intermediary."
|
|
|
043 |
Fleitmann,
D., S.J. Burns, A. Mangini, M. Mudelsee, J. Kramers, I. Villa, U.
Neff, A.A. Al-Subbary, A. Büttner, D. Hippler, A. Matter (2007)
Holocene
ITCZ and Indian monsoon dynamics recorded in stalagmites from Oman
and Yemen (Socotra).
19 S. - Quaternary Science Reviews
26:170188. |
|
|
044 |
Fleitmann,
D., S.J. Burns, U. Neff, M. Mudelsee, A. Mangini, A. Matter (2004)
Paleoclimatic
interpretation of high-resolution oxygen isotope profiles derived
from annually laminated speleothems from Southern Oman.
11
S. - Quaternary Science Reviews 23:935945. |
|
|
|
|
045 |
Friis-Christensen,
E. & K. Lassen (1991)
Length of the solar cycle: an indicator of solar activity closely
associated with climate.- Science 254, 698-700.
|
|
|
|
|
046 |
Fröhlich,
C. (2006)
Solar Irradiance Variability Since 1978: Revision of the {PMOD} Composite
During Solar Cycle 21.- Space Science Reviews, Volume 125, Issue
1-4, pp. 53-65.
-
Abstract:
Since November 1978 a set of total solar irradiance (TSI) measurements
from space is available, yielding a time series of more than 25
years. Presently, there are three TSI composites available, called
PMOD, ACRIM and IRMB, which are all constructed from the same
original data, but use different procedures to correct for sensitivity
changes. The PMOD composite is the only one which also
corrects the early HF data for degradation. The results from the
detailed analysis of the VIRGO radiometry allow a good understanding
of the effects influencing the long-term behaviour of classical
radiometers in space. Thus, a re-analysis of the behaviour of
HF/NIMBUS-7 and ACRIM-I/SMM was indicated. For the former the
situation is complicated by the fact that there are no in-flight
means to determine changes due to exposure to solar radiation
by comparison with a less exposed radiometer on the same spacecraft.
The geometry and optical property of the cavity of HF is, however,
very similar to the PMO6-type radiometers, so the behaviour of
the PMO6V radiometers on VIRGO can be used as a model. ACRIM-I
had to be revised mainly due to a henceforth undetected early
increase and a more detailed analysis of its degradation.
The results are not only important for solar radiometry from space,
but they also provide a more reliable TSI during cycle 21. The
differences between the revised PMOD composite and the ACRIM and
IRMB are discussed by comparison with a TSI reconstruction from
Kitt-Peak magnetograms. As the PMOD composite is the only one
which has reliable data for cycle 21, the behaviour of the three
solar cycles can now be compared and the similarities and differences
discussed."
- Dazu einige
Textausschnitte aus dem Magazin DER SPIEGEL vom 06.08.07,
S.124-126: "Eichmass der Sonnenkraft - Ein Observatorium
in Davos misst die Strahlungsenergie der Sonne ....":
|
|
- "Erst
in jüngster Zeit hat sich an der Sonne wieder ein erbitterter
Streit um eine Schicksalsfrage der Menschheit entzündet:
Heizen die Industrieabgase die Erde auf, oder ist daran möglicherweise
die Sonne schuld?" (S.124
- "Von
der breiten Öffentlichkeit praktisch unbemerkt, gelang
dem Institut vor knapp zwei Jahren der erste, direkt gemessene
Beweis dafür, dass der Treibhauseffekt auf der Erde tatsächlich
zunimmt. Zehn Messstationen, die höchstgelegene davon auf
dem ...."
- "Seit
fast zwölf Jahren beobachtet es auf der Sonde Soho die
Sonne ... Und doch ist den Forschern noch immer vieles, was
sich auf der Sonne vollzieht, mysteriös geblieben."
(S.125)
- "Die
abgestrahlte Energie [der Sonne] variiert. 'Verantwortlich dafür
sind Phänomene, die wir grösstenteils beschreiben,
aber leider nicht wirklich befriedgend erklären können',
so Fröhlich."
- "Über
Jahrtausende hin sei die Klimageschichte bestimmt gewesen von
unverstandenen Launen der Sonne, sagt Fröhlich. Und das
sei ja auch nicht verwunderlich: 'Schliesslich stammen fast
hundert Prozent aller Energie auf der Erde von der Sonne.'"
(S.126)
- "Wesentlich
stärker als die Gesamtstrahlung jedoch verändert sich
der ultraviolette Bestandteil des Sonnenlichts. Die Davoser
Messgeräte, die ihn aufzeichnen, zeigen ein ungestümes
Auf und Ab: 'Die UV-Strahlung schwankt mitunter zehnmal stärker
als die Gesamtintensität der Sonne', sagt Direktor Schmutz."
- "Eine
dritte Einflussgrösse auf das Erdklima könnte die
kosmische Strahlung sein, die aus den Tiefen des Alls stammt.
Wie ein Orkan prasseln hochenergetische Protonen auf das Sonnensystem
nieder. Geschützt wird die Erde unter anderem vom sogenannten
Sonnenwind. Dabei gilt: Je aktiver die
Sonne, desto besser schirmt dieser Wind den Globus ab. Ist
die Sonne hingegen schwach, so hämmern die kosmischen Teilchen
viel stärker auf die Erdatmosphäre ein. Wie genau
sich dies aufs Erdklima auswirkt, ist nicht klar...".
- Und zu
den unterschiedlichen Theorien über die Bedeutung der Sonne:
"Ich bin überzeugt, dass die
eine oder die andere Vorhersage der vielen Theorien eintreffen
wird", sagt Schmutz, und Fröhlich sekundiert: Ganz genau.
Wir wissen eben nur nicht, welche der hundert Theorien es am Ende
ist." (S.126)
- Vgl.
Sie dazu auch:
Thejll & Lassen (2000),
Marsh & Svensmark (2000 / 2003 / 2006),
Willson & Mordvinov (2003),
Svensmark & Friis-Christensen (2007),
sowie
die Auseinandersetzung zwischen Svensmark
und Laut auf der Website von Stephen
H. Schneider mit dem sonderbaren Verständnis
von Wissenschaft und der akzeptierten Hockeystick-Kurve,
aber
auch die Forschungen um den Heidelberger
Prof.
Frank Arnold vom MPI für Kernphysik.
|
|
|
047a |
Gaffen,
D.J., Santer, B.D., Boyle, J.S., Christy, J.R., Graham, N.E. and Ross,
R.J. (2000) Multidecadal changes
in the vertical temperature structure of the tropical troposphere.
Science 287: 1242-1245. |
|
|
|
|
047 |
Geb,
M. & K. Labitzke (1995) Klimatrends in der Atmosphäre.-
Forschung an der Freien Universität Berlin.
- Einführung:
"Durch menschliche Aktivitäten wird die chemische Zusammensetzung
der Atmosphäre verändert und die Oberfläche der
Erde umgestaltet. Beides beeinflusst das Klima. So steigen bekanntlich
die Konzentrationen klimarelevanter Spurenstoffe deutlich an:
z.B. Kohlendioxid im wesentlichen durch das Verbrennen von fossilen
Treibstoffen, Methan durch verstärkten Nassreisanbau und
durch zunehmende Viehhaltung ,usw. Dieser
Anstieg verstärkt den natürlichen Treibhauseffekt
und führt zu einer Erwärmung der Troposphäre (vom
Boden bis etwa 10 km Höhe) und zu einer Abkühlung der
darüber liegenden Stratosphäre (etwa 10 bis 50 km Höhe).
Andererseits führt z.B. eine anthropogene (durch Luftverschmutzung)
Erhöhung des atmosphärischen Aerosols (kleine Schwefelsäuretröpfchen)
regional zu einer Abkühlung der Troposphäre. Zusätzlich
zu diesen anthropogenen Einflüssen gibt es natürliche
Faktoren, die das Klima beeinflussen und die das Erkennen des
vom Menschen verursachten "Klima-Trends" erschweren.
Dazu gehören z.B. Vulkaneruptionen, die in unregelmässigen
Abständen in das Klimageschehen eingreifen, und die Sonnenaktivität,
die besonders im 10-12jährigen Rhythmus Einfluss auf das
Klima nimmt. Auf beide Faktoren wird in den nachfolgenden Abbildungen
hingewiesen."
Die
Abb. zeigt deutlich,
"... daß die Temperatur sowohl
am Boden (c) wie auch in der Höhe (a und b) parallel zur
Sonnenaktivität schwankt: Maxima findet man 1958,
1969, 1980 und 1990, also unabhängig von den Vulkaneruptionen.
Die Minima liegen entsprechend dazwischen. Das
bedeutet, dass die Trends durch den Einfluss der Sonnenaktivität
moduliert werden, wenn man auch den Mechanismus dieses Zusammenhangs
bis heute noch nicht genau versteht."
|
|
|
|
|
048 |
GISS
- Goddard Institute for Space Studies / NASA (2007)
Global
'Sunscreen' Has Likely Thinned, Report NASA Scientists.- Research
News, Mar. 15, 2007.
- Textauszug:
The thinning of Earths sunscreen of aerosols
since the early 1990s could have given an extra push to the rise
in global surface temperatures. The finding, published in the
March 16 issue of Science, may lead to an improved understanding
of recent climate change. In a related study published last week,
scientists found that the opposing forces of global warming and
the cooling from aerosol-induced "global dimming" can
occur at the same time.
"When
more sunlight can get through the atmosphere and warm Earth's
surface, you're going to have an effect on climate and temperature,"
said lead author Michael Mishchenko of NASA's Goddard Institute
for Space Studies (GISS), New York. "Knowing what aerosols
are doing globally gives us an important missing piece of the
big picture of the forces at work on climate."
vgl.
dazu auch:
Mishchenko
et al. 2007;
Romanou et al. 2007;
Lau et al. 2006;
Heitzenberg
2005;
Govindan et al. 2002;
Rasool
& Schneider 1971:
|
|
|
049 |
GKSS -
Gesellschaft für Kernenergieverwertung in Schiffbau und Schiffahrt
mbH (2004): Auf die Problematik
bei der Verwendung von Proxy-Daten als Grundlage der Klimaforschung
für bisherige Klimamodelle hat (04.10.2004) Prof. Dr. Hans
von Storch, Leiter des Instituts für Küstenforschung des
GKSS Forschungszentrums in Geesthacht, hingewiesen. Dies ergibt
sich aus der
Studie
einer internationalen Forschergruppe. [date
of access: 04.10.04]
"Das
Ergebnis ist von weitreichender Bedeutung, da Temperatur-Rekonstruktionen,
die auf Proxy-Daten basieren, benutzt werden, um den Klimawandel
der letzten 1.000 Jahre abzuschätzen, besonders durch
das Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in seinem Third
Assessment Report [IPCC 3rd AP] . Die neuen
Ergebnisse zeigen, dass solche Rekonstruktionen, die üblicherweise
benutzt werden, um die jüngsten extremen Klimaänderungen
hervorzuheben, wahrscheinlich irreführend
sind. Sie unterschätzen die Temperaturschwankungen von Jahrhunderten
möglicherweise ganz erheblich."
Anmerkung:
Verständlicherweise wird Prof. von Storch von Mitgliedern
des IPCC heftig kritisiert und seine Auffassung als nicht
ernst zu nehmende Minderheitenmeinung dargestellt, z.B. von Prof.
Schellnhuber (PIK) in einem
Interview
am 3. Okt. 2005 (10:45h) im rbb [date
of access: 04.10.05] (das nachzulesende Interview wurde
leider um die kritischen Bemerkungen - Fachkollegen betreffend
- gekürzt).
|
|
|
|
|
050 |
Gouretski,
V. & K.P. Koltermann (2007)
How
much is the ocean really warming? - Geophysical Review Letters,
34, L01610, January 2007. |
|
|
|
|
051 |
Govindan,
R.B., D. Vyushin, A. Bunde, St. Brenner, S. Havlin and H.-J. Schellnhuber
(2002)
Global
climate models violate scaling of the observed atmospheric variability.-
Physical Review Letters 89(2): 028501.
4S.
- Abstract:
"We
test the scaling performance of seven leading global climate models
by using detrended fluctuation analysis. We analyze temperature
records of six representative sites around the globe simulated
by the models, for two different szenarios: (i) with greenhouse
gas forcing only and (ii) with greenhouse gas plus aerosol forcing.
We find that the simulated records for both scenarios fail to
reproduce the universal scaling behavior of the observed records
and display wide performance differences. The
deviations from the scaling behavior are more pronounced in the
first scenario, where also the trends are clearly overestimated."
Vgl.
dazu auch
Eichner et al. (2003)
Bunde et al. (2005)
GISS
2007 und die folgende Arbeit von Green et al. (2004).
|
|
|
052 |
Graßl,
H. (1989)
Anthropogene
Beeinflussung des Klimas.- Physikalische Blätter 45, 199
(1989)
- Statement:
"Wenn mir vor nur drei Jahren jemand prophezeit hätte,
daß ich, ein in die Geowissenschaften abgewanderter Physiker,
anläßlich einer Festversammlung der Deutschen Physikalischen
Gesellschaft (DPG) über Klimaforschung sprechen würde,
hätte ich ihn ungläubig angestarrt. Welche Entwicklung
hat das wahr werden lassen?
- erstens
das gigantischste Experiment, das die Menschheit je unternahm;
- zweitens
der Versuch der DPG im Jahre 1986, die bundesrepublikanische
Öffentlichkeit mit einer ersten Denkschrift (aus dem
Arbeitskreis Energie) zum Thema dieses Vortrags aufzurütteln;
- drittens
die Proteste der randständigen? Deutschen
Meteorologischen Gesellschaft (DMG);
- viertens
meine von der DMG gewünschte Aufnahme in diesen Arbeitskreis
noch im Jahre 1986 und
- schließlich
die zweite, glücklicherweise sehr wirksame, auch von
mir mitgestaltete Denkschrift: Warnung vor drohenden
weltweiten Klimaänderungen durch den Menschen?,
die vor zwei Jahren anläßlich der Hauptversammlung
der DPG gemeinsam von der DPG und der DMG vorgestellt wurde
(Phys. Bl. 43 (1987) Nr. 8, S. 347349).
Ich möchte
Ihnen heute den Stand der Erkenntnis, zu dem jeder von uns Wissenschaftlern
nur Mosaiksteinchen hinzufügt, vorstellen, D. H. Ich werde
im wesentlichen über die Arbeit von Kollegen berichten. Beginnen
werde ich mit der Diskussion der beiden bedeutendsten Klimaparameter,
danach stelle ich die Komponenten des Klimasystems vor, nenne
die möglichen Pfade zur ungewollten globalen Klimaänderung
durch den Menschen, um dann den wichtigsten davon, nämlich
die Veränderung der Zusammensetzung der Luft, im Hauptteil
des Vortrags ausführlicher zu behandeln."
|
|
|
|
|
053 |
Green, K.C.,
J.S. Armstrong and W. Soon (2009)
Validity
of Climate Change Forecasting for Public Policy Decision Making.-
International Journal of Forecasting 25 (2009) 826832.
-
"Abstract
Policymakers need to know whether prediction is possible and,
if so, whether any proposed forecasting method will provide
forecasts that are substantially more accurate than those from
the relevant benchmark method. An inspection of global temperature
data suggests that temperature is subject to irregular variations
on all relevant time scales, and that variations during the
late 1900s were not unusual.
In such
a situation, a no change extrapolation is an appropriate
benchmark forecasting method. We used the UK Met Office Hadley
Centres annual average thermometer data from 1850 through
2007 to examine the performance of the benchmark method. The
accuracy of forecasts from the benchmark is such that even perfect
forecasts would be unlikely to help policymakers. For example,
mean absolute errors for the 20- and 50-year horizons were 0.18
°C and 0.24 °C respectively. We nevertheless demonstrate
the use of benchmarking with the example of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Changes 1992 linear projection of long-term
warming at a rate of 0.03 °C per year.
The
small sample of errors from ex ante projections at 0.03 °C
per year for 1992 through 2008 was practically indistinguishable
from the benchmark errors. Validation for long-term forecasting,
however, requires a much longer horizon. Again using the IPCC
warming rate for our demonstration, we projected the rate successively
over a period analogous to that envisaged in their scenario
of exponential CO2 growth - the years 1851 to 1975.
The
errors from the projections were more than seven times greater
than the errors from the benchmark method. Relative errors were
larger for longer forecast horizons. Our validation exercise
illustrates the importance of determining whether it is possible
to obtain forecasts that are more useful than those from a simple
benchmark before making expensive policy decisions."
|
|
|
|
|
054 |
Green, K.C.
& J. S. Armstrong (2007) Global
Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts.-
Energy & Environment *),
Vol. 18 No. 7+8 2007 (MPRA-Paper No. 4361, posted 07 Aug 2007).
[19 S.]
[last date of access: 22.11.2019]
- Abstract:
In
2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes Working
Group One, a panel of experts established by the World Meteorological
Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, issued
its Fourth Assessment Report. The Report included predictions
of dramatic increases in average world temperatures over the next
92 years and serious harm resulting from the predicted temperature
increases. Using forecasting principles as our guide we asked:
Are
these forecasts a good basis for developing public policy? Our
answer is no.
To provide
forecasts of climate change that are useful for policy-making,
one would need to forecast (1) global temperature, (2) the effects
of any temperature changes, and (3) the effects of feasible
alternative policies. Proper forecasts of all three are necessary
for rational policy making.
The
IPCC WG1 Report was regarded as providing the most credible
long-term forecasts of global average temperatures by 31 of
the 51 scientists and others involved in forecasting climate
change who responded to our survey.
We
found no references in the 1056-page Report to the primary sources
of information on forecasting methods despite the fact these
are conveniently available in books, articles, and websites.
We
audited the forecasting processes described in Chapter 8 of
the IPCCs WG1 Report to assess the extent to which they
complied with forecasting principles. We found enough information
to make judgments on 89 out of a total of 140 forecasting principles.
The forecasting procedures that were described violated 72 principles.
Many
of the violations were, by themselves, critical.
The
forecasts in the Report were not the outcome of scientific procedures.
In effect, they were the opinions
of scientists transformed by mathematics and obscured by complex
writing.
Research on forecasting has shown that experts predictions
are not useful in situations involving uncertainly and complexity.
We
have been unable to identify any scientific forecasts of global
warming. Claims that the Earth will get warmer have no more
credence than saying that it will get colder.
*) Energy
& Environment is NOT a peer-reviewed science
publication!
|
|
|
054/1 |
Green, J.L.
et al. (2005)
Eyewitness
Reports of the Great Auroral Storm of 1859.- Submitted to
Advances in Space Research (NASA Techn. Reports).
35
S.
Besuchen Sie
zu diesem Ereignis die entsprechende Seite in Wikipedia:
Carrington
Event
[date
of access: 21.12.2020]
|
|
|
|
|
055 |
Green,
K., T. Ball & S. Schroeder (2004)
The
Science Isnt Settled - The Limitations of Global Climate Models.-
The Fraser Institute, A Fraser Institute Occasional Paper 80 /June2004.
32S.
|
|
|
|
|
056 |
Grinsted,
A., Moore, J.C., Pohjola, V., Martma, T. and Isaksson, E. (2006)
Svalbard summer melting, continentality, and sea ice extent from
the Lomonosovfonna ice core.- Journal of Geophysical Research,
111, 10.1029/2005JD006494.
-
Abstract:
"We
develop a continentality proxy (16001930) based on amplitudes
of the annual signal in oxygen isotopes in an ice core. We show
via modeling that by using 5 and 15 year average amplitudes the
effects of diffusion and varying layer thickness can be minimized,
such that amplitudes then reflect real seasonal changes in δ18O
under the influence of melt. A model of chemical fractionation
in ice based on differing elution rates for pairs of ions is developed
as a proxy for summer melt (11301990). The best pairs are
sodium with magnesium and potassium with chloride. The continentality
and melt proxies are validated against twentieth-century instrumental
records and longer historical climate proxies. In addition to
summer temperature, the melt proxy also appears to reflect sea
ice extent, likely as a result of sodium chloride fractionation
in the oceanic sea ice margin source area that is dependent on
winter temperatures. We show that the climate history they depict
is consistent with what we see from isotopic paleothermometry.
Continentality was greatest during the Little Ice Age but decreased
around 1870, 2030 years before the rise in temperatures
indicated by the δ18O profile. The
degree of summer melt was significantly larger during the period
11301300 than in the 1990s."
|
|
|
|
|
057 |
Hathaway,
David H. & Lisa Rightmire (2010)
Variations in the Sun's Meridional Flow over a Solar Cycle.-
Science Vol. 327. no. 5971, pp. 1350 - 1352, DOI: 10.1126/science.1181990
(12 March 2010)
-
Abstract:
"The Sun's meridional flow is an axisymmetric flow that
is generally directed from its equator toward its poles at the
surface. The structure and strength of the meridional flow determine
both the strength of the Sun's polar magnetic field and the intensity
of sunspot cycles. We determine the meridional flow speed of magnetic
features on the Sun using data from the Solar and Heliospheric
Observatory. The average flow is poleward at all latitudes up
to 75°, which suggests that it extends to the poles. It was
faster at sunspot cycle minimum than at maximum and substantially
faster on the approach to the current minimum than it was at the
last solar minimum. This
result may help to explain why this solar activity minimum is
so peculiar."
|
|
|
|
|
058 |
Hegerl,
G.C., T.J. Crowley, W.T. Hyde & D.J. Frame (2006)
Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over
the past seven centuries.- Nature 440, 1029-1032 (20 April 2006).
-
Abstract:
"The magnitude and impact of future global warming depends
on the sensitivity of the climate system to changes in greenhouse
gas concentrations. The commonly accepted range for the equilibrium
global mean temperature change in response to a doubling of the
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration1, termed climate sensitivity,
is 1.54.5 K (ref. 2). A number of observational studies
(...), however, find a substantial probability of significantly
higher sensitivities, yielding upper limits on climate sensitivity
of 7.7 K to above 9 K (refs 38). Here we demonstrate that
such observational estimates of climate sensitivity can be tightened
if reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperature over the
past several centuries are considered. We use large-ensemble energy
balance modelling and simulate the temperature response to past
solar, volcanic and greenhouse gas forcing to determine which
climate sensitivities yield simulations that are in agreement
with proxy reconstructions. After accounting for the uncertainty
in reconstructions and estimates of past external forcing, we
find an independent estimate of climate sensitivity that is very
similar to those from instrumental data. If
the latter are combined with the result from all proxy reconstructions,
then the 595 per cent range shrinks to 1.56.2 K, thus
substantially reducing the probability of very high climate sensitivity."
|
|
|
059 |
Hegerl,
G.C. and Wallace, J.M. (2002) Influence
of patterns of climate variability on the difference between satellite
and surface temperature trends. Journal of Climate 15: 2412-2428. |
|
|
|
|
|
Held,
Isaac M. and Brian J. Soden (2000)
Water Vapor Feedback and Global Warming.- Annual Review of Energy
and the Environment, Vol. 25:441-475 (Volume publication date
November 2000). |
|
|
|
|
060 |
Ivchenko,
V. O., N. C. Wells, and D. L. Aleynik (2006)
Anomaly of heat content in the northern Atlantic in the last 7 years:
Is the ocean warming or cooling? - Geophysical Research Letters,
33, L22606, doi:10.1029/2006GL027691.
-
Abstract:
"Whether
the North Atlantic Ocean is warming or cooling is an important
question both in physical oceanography and climate change. The
Argo profiling buoys provide an accurate and stable instrument
for determining the tendencies in heat content from the surface
to 2000 m from 1999 to 2005. To calculate temperature and heat
content anomalies two reference climatologies are used. These
are the well known WOA2001 climatology (Stephens et al., 2002),
and a new WOCE Global Hydrographic climatology (Gouretski and
Koltermann, 2004). The former climatology is used for our main
results, and the latter is used for evaluating the sensitivity
of our results to the climatology. Our scheme allows us to estimate
the anomaly of heat content (AHC) in the North Atlantic and its
smaller sub-domains (i.e. 10° boxes) for the period 19992005.
We have found a dipole structure in the time averaged AHC: negative
values are concentrated in the southern and middle latitudes of
the North Atlantic whilst positive values are found north of 50°N.
The upper 1500 m of the North Atlantic is warming throughout
the period 1999 to 2005."
|
|
|
061 |
IPCC
- Houghton J.T. et al. (1990, edit.) IPCC, Climate Change
- The IPCC Scientific Assessment.- Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. |
|
|
062 |
IPCC
- Houghton J.T. et al. (2001, edit.)
IPCC,
Climate
Change 2001
323 KB, 20 S. - The Scientific
Basis.- Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. [last
date of access: 26.02.07] mit Hockeyschläger-Kurve. |
|
|
063 |
Jones,
P.D. and Moberg, A. (2003). "Hemispheric
and large-scale surface air temperature variations: An extensive revision
and an update to 2001". Journal of Climate 16: 206-223. |
|
|
064 |
Kalnay,
E. and Cai, M. (2003) Impact
of urbanization and land-use change on climate.- Nature 423:528-531
|
|
|
065 |
Karl,
Thomas R., Susan J. Hassol, Christopher D. Miller, and William L.
Murray, (editors, 2006)
Temperature
Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling
Differences. - A Report by the Climate Change Science Program
and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Washington, DC.
[last
date of access: 25.01.18] |
|
|
|
|
066 |
Karlén,
Wibjorn (1998) Climate variations
and the enhanced greenhouse effect.- Ambio, Royal Swedish Academy
of Sciences.
- Abstract:
"Changes in the size of glaciers, in the altitude of the
alpine tree-limit, and variation in the width of tree-rings during
the Holocene clearly indicate that the average Scandinavian summer
temperature has fluctuated. During warm periods it has been about
2°C warmer than at present; during cold periods it has been
almost as cold as it was during the coldest decades of the previous
centuries. Superimposed on these long-term variations, which have
lasted from 100 to 200 years, are short fluctuations in temperature.
The Scandinavian chronology, which is based on glacier and alpine
tree-limit fluctuations as well as on dendrochronology, is well
correlated with the changes in climate, which studies of ice cores
from central Greenland have revealed. It is therefore believed
that the Scandinavian climate chronology depicts conditions typical
of a large area. The Scandinavian record is compared with data
concerning solar irradiation variations estimated as 14 C anomalies
obtained from tree-rings. A
correlation between major changes in climate and variations in
solar irradiation points to a solar forcing of the climate. This
means that there is no evidence of a human influence on climate
so far."
|
|
|
|
|
067 |
Keenlyside,
N. S., M. Latif, J. Jungclaus, L. Kornblueh, and E. Roeckner
(2008) Advancing Decadal-Scale
Climate Prediction in the North Atlantic Sector.- Nature, 453,
84-88.
-
Abstract:
"
The climate of the North Atlantic region exhibits fluctuations
on decadal timescales that have large societal consequences.
Prominent examples include hurricane activity in the Atlantic,
and surface-temperature and rainfall variations over North America,
Europe and northern Africa. Although these multidecadal variations
are potentially predictable if the current state of the ocean
is known, the lack of subsurface ocean observations that constrain
this state has been a limiting factor for realizing the full
skill potential of such predictions. Here we apply a simple
approach - that uses only sea surface temperature (SST) observations
- to partly overcome this difficulty and perform retrospective
decadal predictions with a climate model. Skill is improved
significantly relative to predictions made with incomplete knowledge
of the ocean state, particularly in the North Atlantic and tropical
Pacific oceans. Thus these results point towards the possibility
of routine decadal climate predictions.
Using
this method, and by considering both internal natural climate
variations and projected future anthropogenic forcing, we make
the following forecast:
over the next decade, the current Atlantic
meridional overturning circulation will weaken to its long-term
mean; moreover, North Atlantic SST and European and North American
surface temperatures will cool slightly, whereas
tropical Pacific SST will remain almost unchanged. Our results
suggest that
global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade,
as natural climate variations in
the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific
temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic
warming."
Literaturangaben
wurden nicht berücksichtigt!
|
|
|
|
|
068 |
Keppler,
F., John T. G. Hamilton, M. Braß & Th. Röckmann (2006)
Methane emissions from terrestrial plants under aerobic conditions.-
Nature 439, 187-191 (12 January 2006).
- Abstract:
"Methane is an important greenhouse gas and its atmospheric
concentration has almost tripled since pre-industrial times1,
2. It plays a central role in atmospheric oxidation chemistry
and affects stratospheric ozone and water vapour levels. Most
of the methane from natural sources in Earth's atmosphere is thought
to originate from biological processes in anoxic environments2.
Here we demonstrate using stable carbon isotopes that methane
is readily formed in situ in terrestrial plants under oxic conditions
by a hitherto unrecognized process. Significant methane emissions
from both intact plants and detached leaves were observed during
incubation experiments in the laboratory and in the field. If
our measurements are typical for short-lived biomass and scaled
on a global basis, we estimate a methane source strength of 62236
Tg yr-1 for living plants and 17 Tg yr-1 for plant litter
(1 Tg = 1012 g). We suggest that this newly identified source
may have important implications for the global methane budget
and may call for a reconsideration of the role of natural methane
sources in past climate change."
- Besprechung
im Rhombos Verlag: Die
vergessene Methan-Quelle [Besprechung
leider nicht mehr online] - vgl. auch SdW Mai
2007: 68-73.
- Anmerkung:
Sollten die o.g. Ergebnisse zutreffen, wird das bisherige Lehrbuchwissen
bzgl. nicht möglicher Methanabgabe durch lebende Pflanzen
obsolet. Darüber hinaus sind die bisherigen Klimamodelle
neu zu rechnen, da Methan als interaktivem Treibhausgas (20-30x
wirksamer als Kohlendioxid) eine wesentliche Rolle im Wechselspiel
der unterschiedlichen Treibhausgasquellen (speziell Kohlendioxid)
zukommt.
|
|
|
069 |
Khilyuk,
L.F., & G. V. Chilingar (2006)
On global forces of nature driving the Earths climate. Are humans
involved? - Environmental Geology, 50, 899910.
-
Abstract:
" The authors identify and describe the following global
forces of nature driving the Earths climate: (1) solar radiation
as a dominant external energy supplier to the Earth, (2) outgassing
as a major supplier of gases to the World Ocean and the atmosphere,
and, possibly, (3) microbial activities generating and consuming
atmospheric gases at the interface of lithosphere and atmosphere.
The writers provide quantitative estimates of the scope and extent
of their corresponding effects on the Earths climate. Quantitative
comparison of the scope and extent of the forces of nature and
anthropogenic influences on the Earths climate is especially
important at the time of broad-scale public debates on current
global warming.
The writers show that the human-induced
climatic changes are negligible."
|
|
|
070 |
Kiehl,
J. T. & Trenberth, K. E. (1997) Earth's Annual Global Mean
Energy Budget.- Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 197-208.
- Abstract:
"The purpose of this paper is to put forward a new estimate,
in the context of previous assessments, of the annual global mean
energy budget. A description is provided of the source of each
component to this budget. The top-of-atmosphere shortwave and
longwave flux of energy is constrained by satellite observations.
Partitioning of the radiative energy throughout the atmosphere
is achieved through the use of detailed radiation models for both
the longwave and shortwave spectral regions. Spectral features
of shortwave and longwave fluxes at both the top and surface of
Earth's system are presented. The longwave radiative forcing of
the climate system for both clear (125 W·m-2) and cloudy
(155 W·m-2) conditions are discussed. We find that for
the clear sky case the contribution due to water vapor to the
total longwave radiative forcing is 75 W·m-2, while for
carbon dioxide it is 32 W·m-2. Clouds alter these values,
and the effects of clouds on both the longwave and shortwave budget
are addressed. In particular, the shielding effect by clouds on
absorption and emission by water vapor is as large as the direct
cloud forcing. Because the net surface heat budget must balance,
the radiative fluxes constrain the sum of the sensible and latent
heat fluxes which can also be estimated independently."
Vgl. dazu auch Treibhauseffekt
|
|
|
|
|
071 |
Kirkby,
J. (2007) Cosmic
Rays and Climate.- Surveys
in Geophysics 28, 333-375. (Full
article CERN-PH-EP/2008-005, 26 March 2008)
44 S.
[date
of access: 08.12.09]
- Abstract:
"Among the most puzzling questions in climate change is
that of solar-climate variability, which has attracted the attention
of scientists for more than two centuries. Until recently, even
the existence of solar-climate variability has been controversial-perhaps
because the observations had largely involved correlations between
climate and the sunspot cycle that had persisted for only a few
decades. Over the last few years, however, diverse reconstructions
of past climate change have revealed clear associations with cosmic
ray variations recorded in cosmogenic isotope archives, providing
persuasive evidence for solar or cosmic ray forcing of the climate.
However, despite the increasing evidence of its importance, solar-climate
variability is likely to remain controversial until a physical
mechanism is established. Although this remains a mystery, observations
suggest that cloud cover may be influenced by cosmic rays, which
are modulated by the solar wind and, on longer time scales, by
the geomagnetic field and by the galactic environment of Earth.
Two different classes of microphysical mechanisms have been
proposed to connect cosmic rays with clouds: firstly, an influence
of cosmic rays on the production of cloud condensation nuclei
and, secondly, an influence of cosmic rays on the global electrical
circuit in the atmosphere and, in turn, on ice nucleation and
other cloud microphysical processes. Considerable progress
on understanding ion-aerosol-cloud processes has been made in
recent years, and the results are suggestive of a physically-plausible
link between cosmic rays, clouds and climate. However, a concerted
effort is now required to carry out definitive laboratory measurements
of the fundamental physical and chemical processes involved, and
to evaluate their climatic significance with dedicated field observations
and
modelling studies."
|
|
|
|
|
072 |
Knutti,
Reto (2010)The
end of model democracy? - An editorial comment.- Climatic
Change, DOI 10.1007/s10584-010-9800-2.
10S.
[date of access: 21.04.10]
- Auszug
(S. 4):
"
2.3 All
models are wrong, or the issue of structural uncertainty.
The fact
that no parameter set in a model matches all observations means
that the model is structurally wrong, i.e. there are processes
that are not adequately resolved or parameterized, or missing
entirely (Kennedy and OHagan 2001; McWilliams 2007; Smith
2002). Incorporating structural uncertainty (or model discrepancy)
in an uncertainty analysis is a tough problem. Some argue that
structural problems are too big compared to the observational
uncertainty, implying that all models are so wrong that we cannot
even attach likelihoods to models (Stainforth et al. 2007). I
would not go that far. All models can be shown to be inaccurate
to some degree if we use enough data to evaluate them. But this
may not matter in some cases, and is expected because a model
is only an approximate description of the real system ...".
- Prof.
Knutti (ETH Zürich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate
Science) hält die AGW-Hypothese für zutreffend. Zitat:
"Even if carbon emissions were instantly reduced to zero,
most of the climate change that has occurred is irreversible for
a thousand years. While some impacts are still uncertain, there
are robust predictions for both short term impacts like droughts
and long term effects like sea level rise."
|
|
|
|
|
073 |
Koutsoyiannis,
D., A. Efstratiadis, N. Mamassis, and A. Christofides (2008)
On
the credibility of climate predictions.- Hydrological Sciences
Journal, 53 (4), 671684.
- Auszug:
"At
the annual and the climatic (30-year) scales, GCM interpolated
series are irrelevant to reality. GCMs do not reproduce natural
over-year fluctuations and, generally, underestimate the variance
and the Hurst coefficient of the observed series. Even worse,
when the GCM time series imply a Hurst coefficient greater than
0.5, this results from a monotonic trend, whereas in historical
data the high values of the Hurst coefficient are a result of
large-scale over-year fluctuations (i.e. successions of upward
and downward trends. The huge negative values of coefficients
of efficiency show that model predictions are much poorer than
an elementary prediction based on the time average. This makes
future climate projections at the examined locations not credible."
- Abstract:
"Geographically
distributed predictions of future climate, obtained through climate
models, are widely used in hydrology and many other disciplines,
typically without assessing their reliability. Here we compare
the output of various models to temperature and precipitation
observations from eight stations with long (over 100 years) records
from around the globe. The results show that models perform poorly,
even at a climatic (30-year) scale. Thus
local model projections cannot be credible, whereas a common argument
that models can perform better at larger spatial scales is unsupported."
ITIA
Research Team
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
074 |
Krivova
N.A. & S.K. Solanki (2004) Solar
Variability and Global Warming: A Statistical Comparison Since 1850.-
Advances in Space Research, vol. 34, pp. 361-364. |
|
|
075 |
Labohm,
H. (2007)
Klimakatastrophenzweifel
- eine Einführung.-
Novo-Magazin, Januar-Februar, S. 24-29. |
|
|
|
|
076 |
Labitzke,
K. (2005)
On
the Solar Cycle-QBO-Relationship: A Summary.- J.A.S.-T.P.,
special issue, 67, 45-54.
- Abstract:
"We have shown in several publications that there exists
a strong signal of the 11-year sunspot cycle throughout the year,
but this signal can only be identified, if the data are stratified
according to the phase of the QBO (Labitzke, 1987; 2002, 2003;
Labitzke and van Loon, 1988, 2000; van Loon and Labitzke, 1994,
2000). The 11-year sunspot cycle is connected with a large variability
of the solar radiation in the ultraviolet (UV) part of the spectrum
which varies about 6-8% between solar maxima and minima (Chandra
and McPeters, 1994). That is enough to cause in the upper stratosphere
changes in the temperatures, winds and ozone which will result
in circulation changes here and it is possible that such changes
have an indirect effect on the lower stratosphere and on the troposphere.
Different observations indicate that the mean meridional circulation
systems, like the Brewer-Dobson Circulation (BDC) and the Hadley
Circulation (HC) are influenced by the 11-year solar cycle
(Kodera and Kuroda, 2002; Hood and Soukharev, 2003; Labitzke,
2003, 2004a, b; Salby and Callaghan, 2004; van Loon and Meehl,
2004).
Recent simulations of the middle atmosphere, using General Circulation
Models (GCMs) and introducing the changes in UV and ozone and
profiles of the winds over the equator, simulating the east and
west phase of the QBO, respectively, resulted in a realistic simulation
of the variability of the arctic polar vortex in northern winters
(e.g., Matthes et al., 2004). The simulated signal over the tropics
is, however, still too weak."
|
|
|
077 |
Labitzke,
K. (1995)
Aspekte
des Ozonproblems.- Forschung an der Freien Universität Berlin.-
Forschung an der Freien Universität Berlin, Referat Forschungsinformation
- 3/95-VI C-Labitzk1, Faltblatt, 1995
- Einführung:
"In fast jeder Diskussion über Umweltprobleme, ob Treibhauseffekt,
Grundwasserverschmutzung oder Überschwemmungen, fällt
früher oder später das Wort "Ozonloch" - jeder
Laie benutzt es mit einer verblüffenden Selbstverständlichkeit.
Obwohl er kaum wissen kann, was sich hinter dem Wort "Ozonloch"
wirklich verbirgt, fühlt er sich laut Meinungsumfragen (in
Deutschland) im Vergleich zu allen anderen Umweltproblemen von
dem Ozonloch am meisten bedroht. Und manche Presseberichte schüren
diese Angst, indem gelegentlich im Winter vollkommen unsachgemäß
and falsch von einem Ozonloch über Deutschland berichtet
wird.
In der Wirklichkeit handelt es sich um einen besorgniserregenden
langfristigen, bis in die Mitte des nächsten Jahrhunderts
andauernden Abbau des Ozons (siehe Abbildung 2, der durch die
Fluorchlorkohlenwasserstoffe (FCKWs), aber auch durch den Anstieg
anderer anthropogener Spurenstoffe verursacht wird. Deshalb wurden
Maßnahmen ergriffen, um die Produktion und den Verbrauch
dieser gefährlichen Produkte weitgehend zu stoppen.
Es muß aber auch klargestellt werden, daß sich auf
der Nordhemisphäre bis jetzt kein "Ozonloch" ausbilden
kann, so daß in Deutschland während des ganzen Jahres
vor den Sonnenstrahlen keine Angst herrschen muß, wenn man
sich gegen Sonnenbrand schützt - wie es auch früher
üblich war. Wirklich vorsichtig muß man bei allen Reisen
in den Süden sein."
|
|
|
078 |
Labitzke,
K. & M. Kunze (2005)
Stratospheric
temperatures over the Arctic: Comparison of three data sets.-
Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Vol. 14, No. 1, 65-74, February 2005. |
|
|
079 |
Labitzke,
K. & H. Van Loon (1997) The signal of the 11-year sunspot
cycle in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere.- Space Sci.
Rev. 80, 393-410. |
|
|
|
|
080 |
Labitzke,
K., M. Kunze, and S. Brönnimann (2006)
Sunspots,
the QBO, and the Stratosphere in the North Polar Region 20 Years later.-
Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Vol. 15, No. 3, 355-363(9)
- Zusammenfassung:
"In früheren Arbeiten haben wir gezeigt, wie groß
der Einfluss des 11-jährigen Sonnenfleckenzyklus auf die
untere Stratosphäre ist. Um diesen Einfluss zu isolieren,
müssen die Daten nach der Phase der Quasi-Biennial Oscillation
(QBO) sortiert werden. Dies ist während des ganzen Jahres
notwendig, aber der Einfluss von QBO und 11-jährigem Sonnenfleckenzyklus
ist am stärksten während des Nordwinters (Januar-Februar).
Für unsere erste Veröffentlichung (Labitzke 1987) standen
nur Daten von 30 Jahren zur Verfügung. Aber inzwischen können
wir Ergebnisse zeigen, die auf 65 Jahren basieren und die unsere
frühen Arbeiten bestätigen: Der 11-jährige Sonnenfleckenzyklus
hat einen signifikanten Einfluss auf die Stärke des stratosphärischen
Polarwirbels und auf die mittlere Meridionalzirkulation."
vgl. auch: (047)
Geb, M. & K. Labitzke (1995)
|
|
|
081 |
Lamp,
H.H. (1972/1977)
Food
shortage, climatic variability, and epidemic disease in preindustrial
Europe - the mortality peak in the early 1740s. |
|
|
|
|
082 |
Landsea,
C.W., N. Nicholls, W.M. Gray, and L.A. Avila, (1996)
Downward
trends in the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes during the
past five decades.- Geo. Res. Letters, 23, 1697-1700.
- Abstract
There is concern that the enhanced greenhouse effect may be affecting
extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones. The North Atlantic
basin offers a reliable, long-term record of tropical cyclone
activity, though it may not be representative of tropical cyclones
throughout the rest of the tropics. The most recent years of 1991
through 1994 have experienced the quietest tropical cyclone activity
on record in terms of frequency of tropical storms, hurricanes,
and intense hurricanes. This was followed by the 1995 hurricane
season, one of the busiest in the past 50 years. Despite 1995's
activity, a long-term (five decade) downward trend continues to
be evident primarily in the frequency of intense hurricanes. In
addition, the mean maximum intensity (i.e., averaged over all
cyclones in a season) has decreased, while the maximum intensity
attained by the strongest hurricane each year has not shown a
significant change.
Recent
Publications of Landsea and others, and Submissions.
|
|
|
|
|
083 |
Lassen,
K. (1997 ?)
Solar
Activity and Climate - Long-term Variations in Solar Activity and
their Apparent Effect on the Earth's Climate.- Danish Meteorological
Institute, Solar-Terrestrial Physics Division, Lyngbyvej,100, DK-2100
Copenhagen (2), Denmark.
- Abstract
"The varying length of the 11-year cycle has been found to
be strongly correlated with longterm variations of the northern
hemisphere land surface air temperature since the beginning of
systematic temperature variations from a global network, i. e.
during the past 130 years. Although direct temperature observations
before this interval are scarce, it has been possible to extend
the correlation back to the 16th century due to the existence
of a series of proxy temperature data published by Groveman and
Landsberg in 1979. Reliable sunspot data do not exist before 1750,
but we have been able to derive epochs of minimum sunspot activity
from auroral observations back to 1500 and combine them with the
direct observations to a homogeneous series.
Comparison of the extended solar activity record with the temperature
series confirms the high correlation between solar activity and
northern hemisphere land surface air temperature and shows that
the relationship has existed through the whole 500-year interval
for which reliable data exist.
A corresponding influence of solar activity has been demonstrated
in other climatic parameters. Thus, both the date of arrival of
spring in the Yangtze River Valley as deduced from phenological
data and the extent of the sea-ice in the Atlantic sector of the
Arctic sea have been shown to be correlated with the length of
the sunspot cycle during the last 450 years."
|
|
|
084 |
Lassen,
K. & E. Friis-Christensen (1995) Variability of the solar
cycle length during the past five centuries and the apparent association
with terrestrial climate.- J. Atm.Terr. Phys., 57, 835-845. |
|
|
|
|
085 |
Lau,
K.M., M.K. Kim & K.M. Kim (2006)
Aerosol induced anomalies in the Asian summer monsoon - The role of
the Tibetan Plateau.- Climate Dynamics, 26 (7-8), 855-864.
|
|
|
086 |
LeRoy
Ladurie, E. (1988) Times of Feast, Times of Famine. A History
of Climate since the Year 1000. Farrar, Straus and Giroux, New York.
|
|
|
|
Lindzen,
R.S. and C. Giannitsis (2002)
Reconciling observations of global temperature change.- Geophys.
Res. Ltrs. 29, (26 June) 10.1029/2001GL014074 |
|
|
087 |
Lindzen,
R.S, M.-D. Chou, and A.Y. Hou (2001)
Does the Earth have an adaptive infrared iris? - Bull. Amer. Met.
Soc. 82, 417-432. |
|
|
088 |
Lockwood,
M. & C. Fröhlich , J. (2007)
Recent
oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global
mean surface
air temperature.-
14
S. Proc. R. Soc. A, doi:10.1098/rspa.2007.1880 Published
online. [date
of access: 21.04.08]
- "There
is considerable evidence for solar influence on the Earths
pre-industrial climate and the Sun may well have been a factor
in post-industrial climate change in the first half of the last
century. Here we show that over the past 20 years, all the trends
in the Sun that could have had an influence on the Earths
climate have been in the opposite direction to that required to
explain the observed rise in global mean temperatures."
- Eine
sehr beachtenswerte und kritische Analyse dieser Arbeit durch
Nir Shaviv finden Sie hier:
Why
is Lockwood and Fröhlich meaningless?
- Eine
sofortige Reaktion auf diese Arbeit gaben auch Henrik
Svensmark and Eigil Friis-Christensen ab.
|
|
|
088/1 |
Lüdecke,
H.-J., R. Gina, H-J. Dammschneider and S. Lüning (2020)
Decadal
and multidecadal natural variability in European temperature.-
Journal of Atmospheric and SolarTerrestrial Physics 205 (2020)
105294. [last
date of access: 13.06.2020] |
|
|
|
- Abstract:
"European monthly temperatures undergo strong fluctuations
from one year to the other. The variability is controlled by natural
processes such as Atlantic cycles, changes in solar activity,
volcanic eruptions, unforced internal atmospheric variability,
as well as anthropogenic factors. This contribution investigates
the role of key natural drivers for European temperature variability,
namely the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the North
Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and solar activity changes. We calculated
Pearson correlation coefficients r for AMO, NAO and sunspots compared
to monthly temperature data of 39 European countries for the period
19012015 in order to search for fingerprints
of the natural drivers. A cross correlation window of 11 months
was chosen for AMO, NAO and of 120 months for SILSO to account
for possible time lags or phase shifts. The r coefficients were
mapped out across Europe on a monthly basis to document regional
and seasonal changes of the correlation strength. The NAO dominates
European temperature variability during the winter months, with
strongest relationship in February. The AMO modulates temperatures
in March to November, with best correlations
occurring in summer, but also in April. Regions of strongest AMO
and NAO impacts shift across the continent from month to month,
forming systematic patterns. Direct correlation of the solar 11-year
Schwabe cycle with temperatures was identified only in some countries
in certain multidecadal intervals during February, March, June
and September. Previous studies have suggested a significant solar
influence on the AMO and NAO. It is likely that the greatest impact
of solar activity on European temperatures is of a non-linear,
indirect nature by way of interaction with Atlantic cycles."
|
|
|
089 |
Maddox,
J. (1991)
Making global warming public property.- Nature 349: 189. |
|
|
|
|
089/1 |
Maher,
N., F. Lehner & J. Marotzke (2020)
Quantifying
the role of internal variability in the temperature weexpect to observe
in the coming decades. - Environ. Res. Lett.15 (2020) 054014 |
|
|
|
- Abstract:
" On short (15-year) to mid-term (30-year) time-scales how
the Earths surface temperature evolves can be dominated
by internal variability as demonstrated by the global-warming
pause or hiatus. In this study, we use six single
model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) and the Coupled
Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) to visualise the role
of internal variability in controlling possible observable surface
temperature trends in the short-term and mid-term projections
from 2019 onwards. We confirm that in the short-term, surface
temperature trend projections are dominated by internal variability,
with little influence of structural model differences or warming
pathway. Additionally we demonstrate that this result is independent
of the model-dependent estimate of the magnitude of internal variability.
Indeed, and perhaps counter intuitively,
in all models a lack of warming, or even a cooling trend could
be observed at all individual points on the globe, even under
the largest greenhouse gas emissions. The near-equivalence
of all six SMILEs and CMIP5 demonstrates the robustness of this
result to the choice of models used. On the mid-term time-scale,
we confirm that structural model differences and scenario uncertainties
play a larger role in controlling surface temperature trend projections
than they did on the shorter time-scale.In addition we show that
whether internal variability still dominates, or whether model
uncertainties and internal variability are a similar magnitude,
depends on the estimate of internal variability, which differs
between the SMILEs. Finally we show that
even out to thirty years large parts of the globe (or most of
the globe in MPI-GE and CMIP5) could still experience no-warming
due to internal variability."
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
090 |
Malberg,
H. (2007)
Meteorologie und Klimatologie. Eine Einführung.- Springer, Heidelberg.
(400 S., € 24,50)
- Besprechung
von Uwe Goerlitz in GeoWiss.de >
[leider nicht mehr online am 20.11.2019, kann jedoch über
archive.org
aufgerufen werden] "Klimawandel ist das Normale"
(2007-04-07) [last
date of access: 05.07.2020]
Ausschnitt:
"Malberg * behandelt alle relevanten
Themen der Materie: Atmosphäre, Strahlung, Luftbewegung,
Wolkenbildung und Niederschlag, Luftmassen, Zonen und Fronten,
Wetter- und Klimabeobachtung, Wetterprognosen und Prognosemodelle,
atmosphärische Zirkulationen, Klimaklassifikationen, -schwankungen
und -änderungen, lokales Klima, anthropogene Wetterbeeinflussung
und Luftverunreinigung.
Gerade Letzeres - Anthropogenes - bestimmt die seit Jahren aktuelle,
nunmehr durch den UN-Klimabericht wieder an Wichtigkeit zugenommene
und an Kontroversen reiche Debatte. Beim Klimawandel, den der
Autor als etwas Normales betrachtet, gestützt auf Messreihen
und paläoklimatische Ergebnisse - das liest sich deutlich
aus diesem Buch heraus - zählen nicht
etwaige Empfindungen, wahlperiodisch oder journalistisch vorgetragenes
Halbwissen oder bestürzend lächerlich wirkender Aktionsmus
mit angezogener Handbremse, sondern Daten und Fakten."
*
Prof. Horst Malberg, Emeritus (2004), ehemaliger Direktor des
Instituts für Meteorologie an der FU Berlin.
|
|
|
|
|
091 |
Malberg,
H. (2007)
Über
den solaren Einfluss auf den Klimawandel seit 1701 - Kritische Anmerkungen
zum UN Klimabericht 2007, ein Beitrag im Internet.
- Achtung!
Prof. Malberg, ehem. Direktor des Met. Inst. der FU-Berlin, ist
zwar ausgewiesener und anerkannter Fachwissenschaftler, aber er
ist "leider" emeritiert, zu allem Überfluss auch
noch ein Kritiker der IPCC-Katastrophen-Hypothesen und damit nach
Lesart von Rahmstorf und Co. eigentlich
nicht mehr ernst zu nehmen ... weil nicht mehr zeitgemäss?
|
|
|
|
|
092 |
Mangini,
A. (2004
?) "Paleo-Climate"
(deutsch), (hier letzte Erkenntnisse und Publikationen bis Ende
2003 berücksichtigt, welche eine hochsignifikante Korellation
von Sonnenfleckenaktivität und globaler Temperaturentwicklung
aufzeigen), Universität Heidelberg, Institut für Umweltphysik.
[2.3
MB, 38 S.] [date
of access: 05.05.04] |
|
|
093 |
Mann,
M.E., R.S. Bradley, and M.K. Hughes (1999) Northern Hemisphere
Temperatures During the Past Millennium: Inferences, Uncertainties,
and Limitations.- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 26, No. 6,
p.759. |
|
|
094 |
Mann,
M.E., R.S. Bradley, and M.K. Hughes (1998) Global-scale temperature
patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries.- Nature
392: 779-787.
Vgl.
Sie die Seite 2000
Jahre Temperaturentwicklung, speziell Hockeystick-Problematik |
|
|
095 |
Marcott,
G.S.A., J.D. Shakun, P.U. Clark and .C. Mix (2013)
A Reconstruction of Regional and
Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years.- Science 08 Mar
2013: Vol. 339, Issue 6124, pp. 1198-1201 DOI: 10.1126/science.1228026.
[date
of access: 10.04.19]
Abstract:
"Surface temperature reconstructions of the past 1500 years
suggest that recent warming is unprecedented in that time. Here
we provide a broader perspective by reconstructing regional and
global temperature anomalies for the past 11,300 years from 73
globally distributed records. Early Holocene (10,000 to 5000 years
ago) warmth is followed by ~0.7°C cooling through the middle
to late Holocene (<5000 years ago), culminating in the coolest
temperatures of the Holocene during the Little Ice Age, about
200 years ago. This cooling is largely associated with ~2°C
change in the North Atlantic. Current global temperatures of the
past decade have not yet exceeded peak interglacial values but
are warmer than during ~75% of the Holocene temperature history.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change model projections for
2100 exceed the full distribution of Holocene temperature under
all plausible greenhouse gas emission scenarios."
|
|
|
096 |
Marshall
Institute - Climate
Issues & questions.
40S. - [date
of access: 20.03.07 // Datei leider nicht mehr online]
|
|
|
|
|
097 |
Marsh N.D.
and H. Svensmark (2003)
Solar Influence on Earth's Climate.- Space Science Reviews, Volume
107, Numbers 1-2 / April 2003.
ABSTRACT:
"An increasing number of studies indicate that variations
in solar activity have had a significant influence on Earth's
climate. However, the mechanisms responsible for a solar influence
are still not known. One possibility is that atmospheric transparency
is influenced by changing cloud properties via cosmic ray ionisation
(the latter being modulated by solar activity). Support for this
idea is found from satellite observations of cloud cover. Such
data have revealed a striking correlation between the intensity
of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and low liquid clouds (<3.2 km).
GCR are responsible for nearly all ionisation in the atmosphere
below 35 km. One mechanism could involve ion-induced formation
of aerosol particles (diameter range, 0.0011.0 ?m) that
can act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). A systematic variation
in the properties of CCN will affect the cloud droplet distribution
and thereby influence the radiative properties of clouds. If the
GCR-Cloud link is confirmed variations in galactic cosmic ray
flux, caused by changes in solar activity and the space environment,
could influence Earth's radiation budget."
This
revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections
to the Cover Date.
|
|
|
098 |
Marsh
N.D. and H. Svensmark (2000) Low
Cloud Properties Influenced by Cosmic Rays.- Physical Review Letters
85:5004-5007. |
|
|
099 |
Marsh,
Nigel and Henrik Svensmark (2000)
Cosmic
Rays, Clouds, and Climate.- Space Science Review, Volume 94,
Issue 12, pp 215230. |
|
|
|
|
100 |
Martin-Puertas,
C. et al. (2012)Regional
atmospheric circulation shifts induced by a grand solar minimum.-
Nature Geoscience, Year published: (2012) DOI: doi:10.1038/ngeo1460.
[date
of access: 07.05.12]
- Abstract:
"Large changes in solar ultraviolet radiation can indirectly
affect climate by inducing atmospheric changes. Specifically,
it has been suggested that centennial-scale climate variability
during the Holocene epoch was controlled by the Sun. However,
the amplitude of solar forcing is small when compared with the
climatic effects and, without reliable data sets, it is unclear
which feedback mechanisms could have amplified the forcing. Here
we analyse annually laminated sediments of Lake Meerfelder Maar,
Germany, to derive variations in wind strength and the rate of
10Be accumulation, a proxy for solar activity, from 3,300 to 2,000
years before present. We find a sharp increase in windiness and
cosmogenic 10Be deposition 2,759 ± 39 varve years before
present and a reduction in both entities 199 ± 9 annual
layers later. We
infer that the atmospheric circulation reacted abruptly and in
phase with the solar minimum. A
shift in atmospheric circulation in response to changes in solar
activity is broadly consistent with atmospheric circulation patterns
in long-term climate model simulations, and in reanalysis data
that assimilate observations from recent solar minima into a climate
model. We
conclude that changes in atmospheric circulation amplified the
solar signal and caused abrupt climate change about 2,800 years
ago, coincident with a grand solar minimum."
|
|
|
|
|
101 |
Maslin,
M. & P. Austin (2012) Uncertainty:
Climate models at their limit? - Nature 486, 183184
(14 June 2012), doi:10.1038/486183a.
- Remarks:
"For the fifth major assessment of climate science by
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), due to be
released next year, climate scientists face a serious public-image
problem. The climate models they are now working with, which make
use of significant improvements in our understanding of complex
climate processes, are likely to produce wider rather than smaller
ranges of uncertainty in their predictions. To the public and
to policymakers, this will look as though the scientific understanding
of climate change is becoming less, rather than more, clear."
(by CNAP/CCCC
Reading Room).
[date of access: 21.03.2013]
|
|
|
|
|
102 |
Maxeiner,
D. & M. Miersch (1996) Öko-Optimismus.- Metropolitan
Verlag 1996 (342 S.)
Besprechung von
Udo
Leuschner. |
|
|
103 |
McCracken,
F.B. McDonald, J. Beer, J. Abreu & F. Steinhilber (2009)
The effects of low solar activity upon the cosmic radiation and
the interplanetary magnetic field over the past 10,000 years, and
implications for the future.
-
AGU Fall Meeting, 14 - 18 Dec. 2009, San Francisco, USA, Lecture
U34A: "Consequences of an unusually long and deep solar
minimum I" [date
of access: 22.02.2010]
|
|
|
104 |
McIntyre,
S. and R. McKitrick (2005)
Hockey
sticks, principal components, and spurious significance.- Geophysical
Research Letters, VOL. 32. (12 February 2005) [date
of access: 23.02.05] |
|
|
105 |
McIntyre,
S. and R. McKitrick (2003) Corrections
to the Mann et al. (1998) proxy data base and Northern hemispheric
average temperature series.- Energy & Environment 14(6): 751-771.
|
|
|
106 |
Meehl, Gerald
A., Warren M. Washington, William D. Collins, Julie M. Arblaster,
Aixue Hu, Lawrence E. Buja, Warren G. Strand, Haiyan Teng
(2005)
How
Much More Global Warming and Sea Level Rise? - Science 18
March 2005:
Vol. 307. no. 5716, pp. 1769 - 1772, DOI: 10.1126/science.1106663.
- Abstract
" Two
global coupled climate models show that even if the concentrations
of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere had been stabilized in the
year 2000, we are already committed to further global warming
of about another half degree and an additional 320% sea level
rise caused by thermal expansion by the end of the 21st century.
Projected weakening of the meridional overturning circulation
in the North Atlantic Ocean does not lead to a net cooling in
Europe. At any given point in time, even if concentrations are
stabilized, there is a commitment to future climate changes that
will be greater than those we have already observed."
|
|
|
|
|
107 |
Mishchenko,
M.I., I.V. Geogdzhayev, W.B. Rossow, B. Cairns, B.E. Carlson, A.A.
Lacis, L. Liu, and L.D. Travis (2007)
Long-term satellite record reveals likely recent aerosol trend.-
Science, 315, 1543, doi:10.1126/science.1136709. |
|
|
|
|
108 |
Moberg,
A., D.M. Sonechkin, K. Holmgren, N. Datsenko & W. Karlén
(2005) Highly Variable Northern Hemisphere
Temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data.-
Nature,
Vol. 433, No. 7026, pp.. 613-617, 10 February 2005.
- ABSTRACT:
"A number of reconstructions of millennial-scale climate
variability have been carried out in order to understand patterns
of natural climate variability, on decade to century timescales,
and the role of anthropogenic forcing. These reconstructions have
mainly used tree-ring data and other data sets of annual to decadal
resolution. Lake and ocean sediments have a lower time resolution,
but provide climate information at multicentennial timescales
that may not be captured by tree-ring data. Here we reconstruct
Northern Hemisphere temperatures for the past 2,000 years by combining
low-resolution proxies with tree-ring data, using a wavelet transform
technique to achieve timescale-dependent processing of the data.
Our reconstruction shows larger multicentennial variability than
most previous multi-proxy reconstructions, but agrees well with
temperatures reconstructed from borehole measurements and with
temperatures obtained with a general circulation model. According
to our reconstruction, high temperatures - similar to those observed
in the twentieth century before 1990- occurred around AD 1000
to 1100, and minimum temperatures that are about 0.7K below
the average of 1961-90 occurred around AD 1600. This
large natural variability in the past suggests an important role
of natural multicentennial variability that is likely to continue."
Download data from the WDC Paleo archive:
2,000-Year
Northern Hemisphere Temperature Reconstruction.
Grafik
dazu auf der Seite "2000
Jahre Temperaturentwicklung"
|
|
|
109 |
Mörner,
Nils-Axel (2004) Estimating
future sea level changes from past records.-
Global and Planetary Change, Volume 40, Issues 1-2, January 2004,
Pages 49-54, Global Climate Changes during the Late Quaternary.
- Abstract:
"In the last 5000 years, global mean sea level has been dominated
by the redistribution of water masses over the globe. In the last
300 years, sea level has been oscillation close to the present
with peak rates in the period 18901930. Between 1930 and
1950, sea fell. The late 20th century lack any sign of acceleration.
Satellite altimetry indicates virtually no changes in the last
decade. Therefore, observationally based predictions of future
sea level in the year 2100 will give a value of +10±10
cm (or +5±15 cm), by this discarding model outputs by IPCC
as well as global loading models. This
implies that there is no fear of any massive future flooding as
claimed in most global warming scenarios."
|
|
|
|
|
110 |
Mudelsee,
M., M. Börngen, G.Tetzlaff & Grünewald U. (2003)
No
upward trends in the occurrence of extreme floods in central Europe.
4
Seiten - Nature 425:166169.
|
|
|
111 |
Muller,
R.A. (2004)
Rechenfehler
bei der globalen Erwärmung? - Technology Review (University
of California in Berke) vom 25.10.04 |
|
|
112 |
Münchner
Rückversicherung (2005)
Wetterkatastrophen und Klimawandel Sind wir noch zu retten?
[nicht mehr online] - pg verlag der Münchner
Rück. |
|
|
113 |
Ohmura,
A. & M. Wild (2002) CLIMATE
CHANGE: Is
the Hydrological Cycle Accelerating.-
Science Magazine, Nov. 2002, Vol. 298, p.1345-1346. |
|
|
|
|
114 |
Overpeck,
J., K. Hughen, D. Hardy, R. Bradley, R. Case, M. Douglas, B. Finney,
K. Gajewski, G. Jacoby, A. Jennings, S. Lamoureux, A. Lasca, G. MacDonald,
J. Moore, M. Retelle, S. Smith, A. Wolfe, & G. Zielinski (1997)
Arctic Environmental Change of the Last Four
Centuries.- Science, v. 278, n. 5341 p. 1251-1256.
- Abstract:
A compilation of paleoclimate records from lake sediments, trees,
glaciers, and marine sediments provides a view of circum-Arctic
environmental variability over the last 400 years. From 1840 to
the mid-20th century, the Arctic warmed to the highest levels
in four centuries. This warming ended the Little Ice Age in the
Arctic and has caused dramatic retreats of glaciers, melting of
permafrost and sea-ice, and alteration of terrestrial and lake
ecosystems. Although significant warming, particularly after 1920,
was likely due to increases in atmospheric trace-gases, the initiation
of the warming in the mid-19th century suggests that increased
solar irradiance, decreased volcanic activity, and feedbacks internal
to the climate system played roles."
(with linked site map, individual time series, circum-artic
vs forcing, limnological change)
Source:
NOAA-Palaeoclimatology
Program -
[last date of access: 26.04.07]
|
|
|
|
|
115 |
Pansegrau,
Petra (2000)
"Klimaszenarien,
die einem apokalyptischen Bilderbogen gleichen oder Leck
im Raumschiff Erde.
- Eine Untersuchung
der kommunikativen und kognitiven Funktionen von Metaphorik im
Wissenschaftsjournalismus anhand der Spiegelberichterstattung
zum "Anthropogenen Klimawandel", Dissertation, Universität
Bielefeld, Fak. f. Linguistik und Literaturwissenschaft. [last
date of access: 26.04.07]
|
|
|
116 |
Pansegrau,
Petra, Anita Engels, Peter Weingart (2000)
mit dem Titel "Alle
reden vom Klima - Kommunikationen zum Klimawandel zwischen Wissenschaft,
Politik und Massenmedien" (Fakultät für
Soziologie, Institut für Wissenschafts- und Technikforschung
an der Uni Bielefeld).- Forschung an der Universität Bielefeld
22: 62-66. |
|
|
|
|
117 |
Pazur, A.
& M. Winklhofer (2008) Magnetic
effect on CO2 solubility in seawater: A possible link between geomagnetic
field variations and climate.- Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L16710,
doi:10.1029/2008GL034288 (30
August 2008) -
- Abstract
-
"Correlations between geomagnetic-field and climate parameters
have been suggested repeatedly, but possible links are controversially
discussed. Here we test if weak (Earth-strength) magnetic fields
can affect climatically relevant properties of seawater. We found
the solubility of air in seawater to be by 15% lower under reduced
magnetic-field (20 ?T) compared to normal field conditions (50
?T). The magnetic-field effect on CO2 solubility is twice as large,
from which we surmise that geomagnetic field variations modulate
the carbon exchange between atmosphere and ocean. A 1% reduction
in magnetic dipole moment may release up to ten times more CO2
from the surface ocean than is emitted by subaerial volcanism.
This figure is dwarfed in front of anthropogenic CO2 emissions."
(aus AGU
- American Geophysical Union)
|
|
|
118 |
Pecker,
J.-C. and S. K. Runcorn (1990, edits.)
The Earth's Climate and Variability of the Sun over Recent Millennia.-
Royal Society/CUP. |
|
|
119 |
Perry, C.
A. & K. J. Hsu (2000) Geophysical,
archaeological, and historical evidence support a solar-output model
for climate change.- PNAS, vol. 97,| no. 23: 12433-12438
(November 7, 2000). (full
article!)
- Abstract:
"Although the processes of climate change are not completely
understood, an important causal candidate is variation in total
solar output. Reported cycles in various climate-proxy data show
a tendency to emulate a fundamental harmonic sequence of a basic
solar-cycle length (11 years) multiplied by 2N (where N equals
a positive or negative integer). A simple additive model for total
solar-output variations was developed by superimposing a progression
of fundamental harmonic cycles with slightly increasing amplitudes.
The timeline of the model was calibrated to the Pleistocene/Holocene
boundary at 9,000 years before present. The calibrated model was
compared with geophysical, archaeological, and historical evidence
of warm or cold climates during the Holocene. The evidence of
periods of several centuries of cooler climates worldwide called
"little ice ages," similar to the period anno Domini
(A.D.) 1280-1860 and reoccurring approximately every 1,300 years,
corresponds well with fluctuations in modeled solar output. A
more detailed examination of the climate sensitive history of
the last 1,000 years further supports the model. Extrapolation
of the model into the future suggests a gradual cooling during
the next few centuries with intermittent minor warmups and a return
to near little-ice-age conditions within the next 500 years. This
cool period then may be followed approximately 1,500 years from
now by a return to altithermal conditions similar to the previous
Holocene Maximum."
(Proceedings
of the by the National Academy of Sciences)
[date of access: 04.05.07]
|
|
|
120 |
Philander,
S. George (1998) Is the Temperature Rising? The Uncertain Science
of Global Warming.- Publ. by Princeton University Press. Besprechung
in der
New
York Times oder Ausschnitt (Chapter 1) in Princeton University
Press
[last
date of access: 24.07.06] |
|
|
121 |
Pfister,
Chr. (1999) Wetternachhersage
- 500 Jahre Klimavariationen und Naturkatastrophen (1496-1995). |
|
|
122 |
Post,
J.D. (1985) Climate:
present, past and future. Vol. 1 Fundamentals and climate now, Vol.
2 Climatic history and the future. |
|
|
123 |
Priem, Harry
N.A. (2004) CO2 and Climate: a
Geologist's View.- Space Science Reviews, Volume 81, Numbers
1-2 / Juli 1997, pp. 173-198.
- Abstract:
"Climate is discussed as an integral part of 'System Earth',
determined by a complex interplay of numerous geological, biological
and solar processes. The historical and geological record of changing
climate and atmospheric CO2 pressure does not support the current
popular vision that this greenhouse gas is the dominant climate
controlling agent. When empirically ante post tested against past
global climate changes, the 'forecasts' of the climate models
mainly based on forcing by atmospheric CO2 are not borne out.
On
the other hand, recent studies show that solar variability rather
than changing CO2 pressure is an important, probably the dominant
climate forcing factor."
|
|
|
|
|
124 |
Rahmstorf,
S. (2005)
Das
ungeliebte Weder-noch - Was die Klimadebatte so schwierig macht:
Medien wollen von den Wissenschaftlern vor allem Sensationen und Katastrophenwarnungen
hören" [date
of access: 22.02.05] |
|
|
125 |
Rahmstorf,
S. (2004)
Die
Thesen der Klimaskeptiker was ist dran? - Eine
Antwort auf Alvo von Alvensleben.-Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung. |
|
|
126 |
Rahmstorf,
S. (2004)
Die
Klimaskeptiker
124
KB, 8 S. [date
of access: 10.02.05] |
|
|
127 |
Rahmstorf,
S. (2003) Klimawandel
- Rote Karte für Leugner"
409
KB, 6 Seiten [date
of access: 10.02.05] |
|
|
128 |
Rahmstorf,
S. (2003)
Flotte
Kurven - dünne Daten [date
of access: 05.11.04] |
|
|
129 |
Rahmstorf,
S. (2003)
Timing
of abrupt climate change: A precise clock.- Geophysical Research
Letters 30: 10.1029/2003GL0 17115.
4
S. [date
of access: 29.03.10] |
|
|
130 |
Rahmstorf,
S. (1999)
Die
Welt fährt Achterbahn.- Süddeutsche Zeitung, 3./4.
Juli 99 (publ. auf PIK-Sites) |
|
|
131 |
Rahmstorf,
S. & H.-J. Schellnhuber (2006)
Der Klimawandel.- C.H.Beck Verlag, München. (4.Aufl., 144 S.) |
|
|
132 |
Rahmstorf,
S. et al. (2004)
Cosmic
Rays, Carbon Dioxide and Climate.- Eos, Transactions of the
American Geophysical Union |
|
|
133 |
Raper,
S.C.B. & Braithwaite, R.J. (2006)
Low sea level rise projections from mountain glaciers and icecaps
under global warming.- Nature, 439, 311-313.
|
|
|
134 |
Rasmussen,
S. O., Vinther, B. M., Clausen, H. B. and K.K. Andersen (2007)
Early
Holocene climate oscillations recorded in three Greenland ice cores.-
Quaternary Science Reviews, Volume 26, Issue 15-16, p. 1907-1914.
- Abstract:
"A new ice core chronology for the Greenland DYE-3, GRIP,
and NGRIP ice cores has been constructed, making it possible to
compare the dO and accumulation signals recorded in the three
cores on an almost annual scale throughout the Holocene. We here
introduce the new time scale and investigate dO and accumulation
anomalies that are common to the three cores in the Early Holocene
(7.9 11.7 ka before present). Three time periods with significant
and synchronous anomalies in the dO and accumulation signals stand
out: the well-known 8.2 ka event, an event of shorter duration
but of almost similar amplitude around 9.3 ka before present,
and the Preboreal Oscillation during the first centuries of the
Holocene. For each of these sections, we present a dO anomaly
curve and a common accumulation signal that represents regional
changes in the accumulation rate over the Greenland ice cap."
|
|
|
|
|
135 |
Rasool,
S.I. & Schneider, S. (1971) Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and
Aerosols: Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate.- Science
173, 138141. |
|
|
|
|
136 |
Reichholf,
J. H. (2007) Eine kurze Naturgeschichte
des letzten Jahrtausends.- S. Fischer Verlag, Frankfurt am Main. (336
S., € 19,90)
- Buchklappentext:"Tausend
Jahre - eine Spanne, die das Leben zweier Eichen oder ein Zehntel
der Nacheiszeit umfasst - sind ein Wimpernschlag der Erdgeschichte.
Veränderungen in der Natur vollziehen sich in ganz anderen
Zeiträumen als die Geschichte des Menschen. Josef H. Reichholf
blickt aus ökologischer Sicht zurück auf das letzte
Jahrtausend und untersucht die Wechselwirkung von Naturgeschichte
und Geschichte, insbesondere den Klimaverlauf mit seinen ökologischen,
wirtschaftlichen, politischen, sozialen und kulturellen Konsequenzen.
Dabei geht es ihm stets um die Zukunft. Denn diese entwickelt
sich nicht nur aus der Gegenwart, sondern sie ist Teil eines viel
größeren Zeitstroms, der weit in die Vergangenheit
zurückreicht. Was können wir aus der Vergangenheit bei
der Bewältigung von Zukunftsproblemen lernen? Werden uns
Wetter und Klima bald dafür bestrafen, dass wir zu weit gegangen
sind bei unseren Eingriffen in die Natur? Josef H. Reichholf gibt
realistische Einschätzungen unserer Lage und hilft uns so,
die richtigen Entscheidungen für die Zukunft zu treffen."
-
Rezensionsnotiz - Neue Zürcher Zeitung, 28.03.2007
(Auszug
übernommen aus
Perlentaucher.de)
"Stark sei Josef H. Reichholfs Studie in dem Teil, wo sie
die heutigen Natur-Apokalyptiker "ideologiekritisch"
als naiv und romantisch-reaktionär entlarve. Realismus zeige
der Autor auch bei seiner Analyse der eigentlichen Bedrohung heutzutage,
denn nicht Umweltverschmutzung per se sei das wichtigste Problem,
sondern Wasserbau und industrialisierte Landwirtschaft. ...."
[last
date of access: 12.04.07]
|
|
|
|
|
137 |
Rempel,
Alan W, J. S. Wettlaufer and Edwin D. Waddington (2002)
Anomalous
diffusion of multiple impurity species: Predicted implications for
the ice core climate records.- J. of Geophysical Research, Vol.107,
No. B12, 2330. |
|
|
|
|
138 |
Romanou,
A., B. Liepert, G.A. Schmidt, W.B. Rossow, R.A. Ruedy, and Y.-C. Zhang
(2007) 20th Century changes in surface
solar irradiance in simulations and observations.- Geophys. Res.
Lett., 34, L05713, doi:10.1029/2006GL028356. |
|
|
139 |
Rudloff,
von H. (1967) Die
Schwankungen und die Pendelungen des Klimas in Europa seit dem Beginn
der regelmässigen Instrumenten-Beobachtungen (1670) mit einem
Beitrag über die Klimaschwankungen in historischer Zeit.
|
|
|
140 |
Santer,
B. D., T M L Wigley , G A Meehl , M F Wehner , C Mears , M Schabel
, F J Wentz , C Ammann , J Arblaster , T Bettge , W M Washington
, K E Taylor , J S Boyle , W Brüggemann , C Doutriaux (2003)
Influence of Satellite Data Uncertainties on the Detection
of Externally-Forced Climate Change.- ScienceExpress 10.1126/science.1082393
Abstract:
Two independent analyses of the same satellite-based radiative
emissions data yield tropospheric temperature trends that differ
by 0.1 degrees C per decade over 1979 to 2001. The troposphere
warms appreciably in one satellite data set, while the other data
set shows little overall change. These satellite data uncertainties
are important in studies seeking to identify human effects on
climate. A model-predicted "fingerprint" of combined
anthropogenic and natural effects is statistically detectable
only in the satellite data set with a warming troposphere. Our
findings show that claimed inconsistencies between model predictions
and satellite tropospheric temperature data (and between the latter
and surface data) may be an artifact of data uncertainties.
|
|
|
141 |
Sheng Hu,
Feng, Darrell Kaufman, Sumiko Yoneji, David Nelson, Aldo Shemesh,
Yongsong Huang, Jian Tian, Gerard Bond, Benjamin Clegg, Thomas Brown
(2003) Cyclic Variation and Solar
Forcing of Holocene Climate in the Alaskan Subarctic.- Science,
Vol. 301. no. 5641, pp. 1890 - 1893, DOI: 10.1126/science.1088568.
Abstract:
"High-resolution analyses of lake sediment from southwestern
Alaska reveal cyclic variations in climate and ecosystems during
the Holocene. These variations occurred with periodicities similar
to those of solar activity and appear to be coherent with time
series of the cosmogenic nuclides 14C and 10Be as well as North
Atlantic drift ice. Our results imply that small
variations in solar irradiance induced pronounced cyclic changes
in northern high-latitude environments. They also provide
evidence that centennial-scale shifts in the Holocene climate
were similar between the subpolar regions of the North Atlantic
and North Pacific, possibly because of Sun-ocean-climate linkages."
|
|
|
142 |
Schiermeier,
Quirin (2007) What
we don't know about climate change.- News@Nature (05 Feb 2007)
News.
- Summary:
Uncertainty remains over feedback effects.
Context: ...assigning a greater than 50% probability, such as
the chance that human activities are affecting the intensity of
hurricanes. Such care is crucial in a field that is still, in
some areas, shot through with uncertainty. The IPCC has...
|
|
|
|
|
143 |
Schmitt,
D. & M. Schüssler (2002)
Klimaveränderung
- Treibhauseffekt oder Sonnenaktivität.-
4.3
MB, 8S. - Astronomie + Raumfahrt im Unterricht, 39, 5, 31-35
(Manuskript) - - [date
of access: 01.03.07] |
|
|
|
|
144 |
Schneider,
Stephen H. (1987) Klimamodelle - Wird der Treibhauseffekt
neue Dürregebiete hervorbringen? Bedeutet ein Nuklearkrieg den
nuklearen Winter? Computermodelle des Klimas unserer Erde geben Aufschluss
über die Zukunft des Klimas wie auch über seine wechselvolle
Vergangenheit.- Spektrum der Wissenschaft, Sonderdruck 2/1987:
18-25.
|
|
|
145 |
Schönwiese,
Ch.-D. (2019) Klimawandel kompakt
- Ein globales Problem wissenschaftlich erklärt. - Borntraeger,
Stuttgart (132 S.). |
|
|
146 |
Schönwiese,
Ch.-D. (1995) Klimaänderungen - Daten, Analysen, Prognosen.
- Springer-Verlag, Berlin-Heidelberg. (224 S.) |
|
|
147 |
Schönwiese,
Ch.-D. (1994a) Klimatologie.- Ulmer, Stuttgart. (Lehrbuch) |
|
|
148 |
Schönwiese,
Ch.-D. (1994b) Klima. Meyers Forum.- Bibliographisches Institut,
Mannheim. |
|
|
149 |
Schönwiese,
Ch.-D. (1994c) Klima im Wandel - Von Treibhauseffekt, Ozonloch
und Naturkatastrophen.- Sachbuch 9555, rororo 1490, Taschenbuch (Copyright
1992 by Deutsche Verlagsanstalt GmbH, Stuttgart, Stand November 1993.
(254 S.) |
|
|
150 |
Schönwiese,
Ch.-D. (1992) Klima im Wandel - Tatsachen, Irrtümer, Risiken.-
Stuttgart, Deutsche Verlags-Anstalt (223 S.)
|
|
|
151 |
Schwander,
J., et al. (1993) The age of the air in the firn and the ice at
Summit, Greenland.- J. Geophys. Res., 1993. 98(D2): 2831-2838. |
|
|
152 |
Shaviv,
N.J. & J. Veizer (2003)
"Celestial
Driver of Phanerozoic Climate?" -
0.4MB,
40S. GSA Today, Vol. 13, No. 7,
(vgl. dazu die Pressemitteilung der Ruhr-Universität Bochum:
Beitrag
zur Klimadebatte: Globale Erwärmung - der Wasserdampf ist schuld)
und dazu die Reaktion
von Stefan Rahmstorf et al. (2004) |
|
|
153 |
Science
News (2004): How
Strongly Does The Sun Influence The Global Climate?
- ScienceDaily
(Aug. 3, 2004) - "Since the middle of the last century,
the Sun is in a phase of unusually high activity, as indicated
by frequent occurrences of sunspots, gas eruptions, and radiation
storms. Researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Solar System
Research (MPS) in Katlenburg-Lindau (Germany) and at the University
of Oulu (Finland) have come to this conclusion after they have
succeeded in reconstructing the solar activity based on the sunspot
frequency since 850 AD. To this end, they have combined historical
sunspot records with measurements of the frequency of radioactive
isotopes in ice cores from Greenland and the Antarctic. ..."
|
|
|
|
|
154 |
Solanki,
S.K., N.A. Krivova & L.E. Vieira (2009)
Solar magnetic field and irradiance: How unusual is the current
minimum?
-
AGU Fall Meeting, 14 - 18 Dec. 2009, San Francisco, USA, Lecture
U34A: "Consequences of an unusually long and deep solar
minimum I" [date
of access: 22.02.2010]
|
|
|
155 |
Solanki,
S. K., I. G. Usoskin, B. Kromer, M. Schüssler & J. Beer
(2004) Unusual activity of the
Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years.-
Nature, 28 October 2004.
- Abstract:
"Direct observations of sunspot numbers are available for
the past four centuries, but longer time series are required,
for example, for the identification of a possible solar influence
on climate and for testing models of the solar dynamo. Here we
report a reconstruction of the sunspot number covering the past
11,400 years, based on dendrochronologically dated radiocarbon
concentrations. We combine physics-based models for each of the
processes connecting the radiocarbon concentration with sunspot
number. According to our reconstruction, the level of solar activity
during the past 70 years is exceptional, and the previous period
of equally high activity occurred more than 8,000 years ago. We
find that during the past 11,400 years the Sun spent only of the
order of 10% of the time at a similarly high level of magnetic
activity and almost all of the earlier high-activity periods were
shorter than the present episode. Although the rarity of the current
episode of high average sunspot numbers may indicate that the
Sun has contributed to the unusual climate change during the twentieth
century, we point out that solar variability is unlikely to have
been the dominant cause of the strong warming during the past
three decades."
- Vgl. Grafik
1 (11.400 Jahre) | Grafik
2 (1.075 Jahre)
|
|
|
|
|
156 |
Solanki,
S.K. & N.A. Krivova (2006) Solar
Variability of Possible Relevance for Planetary Climates.
1.5
MB, 13 S.-
Sp. Sci. Rev., 125, 25-37. |
|
|
157 |
Solanki,
S.K. & N.A. Krivova (2004) Solar
irradiance variations: from current measurements to long-term estimates.-
Solar Physics 224: pp. 197208. |
|
|
158 |
Solanki,
S.K. & N.A. Krivova (2003) Can
solar variability explain global warming since 1970?
8S.
, J. Geophys.
Res., 108(A5), 1200, doi:10.1029/2002JA009753, 2003. Max
Planck Institute for Aeronomy, Katlenburg-Lindau, German.
- Abstract:
"The magnitude of the Suns influence on climate has
been a subject of intense debate. Estimates of this magnitude
are generally based on assumptions regarding the forcing due to
solar irradiance variations and climate modeling. This approach
suffers from uncertainties that are difficult to estimate. Such
uncertainties are introduced because the employed models may not
include important but complex processes or mechanisms or may treat
these in too simplified a manner. Here we take a more empirical
approach. We employ time series of the most relevant solar quantities,
the total and UV irradiance between 1856 and 1999 and the cosmic
rays flux between 1868 and 1999. The time series are constructed
using direct measurements wherever possible and reconstructions
based on models and proxies at earlier times. These time series
are compared with the climate record for the period 1856 to 1970.
The solar records are scaled such that statistically the solar
contribution to climate is as large as possible in this period.
Under this assumption we repeat the comparison but now including
the period 19701999. This comparison shows without requiring
any recourse to modeling that since roughly 1970 the solar influence
on climate (through the channels considered here) cannot have
been dominant. In particular, the Sun
cannot have contributed more than 30% to the steep temperature
increase that has taken place since then, irrespective
of which of the three considered channels is the dominant one
determining Sun-climate interactions: tropospheric heating caused
by changes in total solar irradiance, stratospheric chemistry
influenced by changes in the solar UV
spectrum, or cloud coverage affected by the cosmic ray flux."
- Diese
Aussagen sind sicher sehr ernst zu nehmen. Gleichwohl ist die
Diskussion damit noch lange nicht abgeschlossen. Man darf auf
weitere Forschungsergebnisse sehr gespannt sein.
|
|
|
159 |
Solanki,
S., A. Ohmura, J. Beer, C. Fröhlich, M. Latif, S. Rahmstorf,
C.-D. Schönwiese, U. Neu (2003)
Die Sonne spielt für das Klima zur Zeit nur eine untergeordnete
Rolle - Klima-Portal, Forum for Climate and Global Change.
Stellungnahme zum Beitrag "Mehr Sonne für mehr
Klarsicht" von E. Gärtner in der Chemischen Rundschau (Heft
Nr.5, 11. März 2003) - letzte Bearbeitung: 19.7.2006
- "Seit
Jahren wird von verschiedener Seite hartnäckig immer wieder
postuliert, die gegenwärtige globale Erwärmung sei primär
durch die Sonne verursacht. Dabei werden jedoch entsprechende
Hinweise sehr selektiv herausgesucht und Untersuchungen, die dies
widerlegen, unbeachtet gelassen."
"Auch wenn man die extreme Annahme trifft, dass die Klimaschwankungen
vor 1970 zu 100% durch die Sonne verursacht worden sind, so könnte
der Sonneneinfluss aufgrund der bisher vorgeschlagenen
Mechanismen höchstens etwa 30% der Erwärmung
in den letzten drei Jahrzehnten erklären [S.K. Solanki and
N.A. Krivova, 2003]. Dieser Temperaturanstieg kann auch in Klimamodellen
nur mit Berücksichtigung der Zunahme der Treibhausgase simuliert
werden."
[last
date of access: 04.05.07]
Diese Aussagen sind insofern interessant, als an anderer Stelle
die Temperaturerhöhung seit der "Kleinen Eiszeit"
nahezu ausschliesslich auf die Zunahme der Treibhausgase zurückgeführt
wird (wenn auch mit recht dubiosen Rechnungen, vgl. z.B.
Umweltbundesamt,
Zitat des UBA auch hier,
oder
Rahmstorf).
- Weitere
Publikationen
von und mit S. K. Solanki (Max-Plank-Institut
für Sonnensystemforschung, Katlenburg-Lindau, MPG)
|
|
|
160 |
Soon, W.
and S. Baliunas (2003) Proxy climatic
and environmental changes of the past 1000 years. Climate Research
23: 89-110.
- Abstract:
We review the 1000-year climatic and environmental history of
the Earth contained in various proxy records. As indicators, the
proxies duly represent local climate. Questions on the validity
of locality paradigm will become sharper as climatic changes on
timescales of 50-100 years or longer are being pursued. This is
because the thermal and dynamical constraints imposed by local
geography will become increasingly important as the air-sea-land
interaction timescale increases. Because the nature of the proxy
climate indicators are so different, the results cannot be combined
or compared into a hemispheric or global quantitative composite.
However, considered as an ensemble of individual expert opinions,
the assemblage of local representations of climate establishes
both the Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period as climatic anomalies
with world-wide imprints, extending earlier results by Bryson
et al. (1963), Lamb (1965), and numerous intervening research
efforts. Furthermore, the individual proxies can be used to address
the question of whether the 20th century is the warmest of the
2nd millennium locally. Across the world, many records reveal
that the 20th century is probably not the warmest nor an uniquely
extreme climatic period of the last millennium, although it
is clear that human activity had impacted many microscopic realms
of the climate and environment.
|
|
|
161 |
Spektrum
der Wissenschaft (Deutsche Ausgabe des Scientific American),
April 2005,
S.22-24:
"Historische
Temperaturwellen - Anscheinend war das Klima in den vergangenen
2000 Jahren wechselhafter als bisher gedacht. Das ergibt sich
aus der Rekonstruktion des Temperaturverlaufs mit einer neuartigen
Methode, die Daten von Baumringen und Sedimenten kombiniert"
von Sven Titz.
" ... das Ausmass der Temperaturschwankungen im vergangenen
Jahrtausend [ist] für die momentane Klimadiskussion letztlich
nicht entscheidend. Das Herzstück der Szenarien für
das treibhausgeplagte 21. Jahrhundert bleiben die physikalisch
fundierten Computermodelle sowie die Temperaturaufzeichnungen
der letzten 150 Jahre - und die lassen an Deutlichkeit nichts
zu wünschen übrig." Vor allem in den letzten 15
Jahren. Doch ist überhaupt nicht entschieden, ob die gemessenen
Werte (per Thermometer) nicht auch schon während des Wärme-Optimums
um etwa 1100 erreicht wurden.
|
|
|
162 |
Spektrum
der Wissenschaft (Deutsche Ausgabe des Scientific American),
März 2005,
S.42-49: "Das sprunghafte Klima" von Richard
B. Alley.
"Eine
weiter andauernde globale Erwärmung könnte plötzlich
in eine neue Kaltzeit umschlagen. Solche unerwarteten Klimaumschwünge
hat es in der Erdgeschichte schon mehrfach gegeben - manchmal
innerhalb weniger Jahre. (...) - 'Temperatur
fährt Achterbahn' (...) Andererseits fand
die Hälfte der Erwärmung seit dem Höhepunkt der
letzten Eiszeit vor etwa 11.500 Jahren - ein Temperaturumschwung
um mehr als 10 Grad Celsius - in nur einem Jahrzehnt statt. (...)
Bisher gibt es keine glaubwürdige Vorhersage eines plötzlichen
Klimawandels, und es ist auch in naher Zukunft keine zu erwarten
(...) Derzeit sieht es so aus, als ob die Menschheit nicht aufhört,
das Boot [metaphorisch für globales Klima] zu schaukeln und
dabei gewisse Klimafaktoren näher an die Grenzen zu schieben,
an denen das System kippt."
|
|
|
|
|
163 |
Stehr,
N. & H. von Storch (2000)
Weine
nicht, wenn der Regen fällt - Die Angst vor der Klimakatastrophe
hat mehr mit kulturellen Vorurteilen als mit Wissen zu tun.- Welt-Online.
[date
of access: 06.03.07]
Sehr
zu empfehlen!! |
|
|
164 |
Stehr,
N. & H. von Storch (1999) Wetter, Klima, Mensch.- C.H.Beck
Verlag, München. (127 S.) |
|
|
165 |
Stehr,
N. & H. von Storch (1997)
Das
soziale Konstrukt des Klimas.- VDI-Gesellschaft Energietechnik
(Ed): Umwelt- und Klimabeeinflussung durch den Menschen IV, VDI Berichte
1330, 187-197. [date
of access: 06.03.07] |
|
|
166 |
Steig,
E.J., P.M. Grootes, and M. Stuiver (1994) Seasonal precipitation
timing and ice core records.- Science 266:1885-1886. |
|
|
167 |
Stern,
Sir Nicolas (2006)
The
Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change (2006)
[8,6
MB, 662 S.] |
|
|
168 |
Storch,
H. von (2009)
"Ich
fürchte, wir werden über die zwei Grad hinausgehen".
Interview mit Hartmut Wewetzer, ZEIT ONLINE, am 11. Dezember 2009.
(Erschienen im gedruckten Tagesspiegel vom 11.12.2009)
[last date of access: 15.04.2019] |
|
|
168/1 |
Storch, H.
von, E. Zorita & F. González-Rouco (2008)
Relationship
between global mean sea-level and global
mean temperature in a climate simulation of the past millennium.-
Ocean Dynamics (2008) 58:227236
[last date of access: 29.12.2019]
- Keywords:
Global sea-level · Temperature · Last millennium
· Climate simulation · Climate change
|
|
|
169 |
Storch,
H. von, & R. Weisse (2007) Regional
storm climate and related marine hazards in the Northeast Atlantic,
In Diaz, H.F. and Murnane, R.J. (eds.), Climate Extremes and Society,
Cambridge: Cambridge University Press (unclear) |
|
|
170 |
Storch,
H.von , E. Zorita, J.M. Jones, F. González-Rouco & S. Tett
(2006) Response to Comment on Reconstructing
Past Climate from Noisy Data. science 312, 28 April
2006, 529c
|
|
|
171 |
Stuiver,
M., T.F. Braziunas, P.M. Grootes, and G.A. Zielinski (1997) Is
there evidence for solar forcing of climate in the GISP2 oxygen isotope
record? - Quaternary Research 48:259-266. |
|
|
172 |
Stuiver,
M., P.M. Grootes, and T.F. Braziunas (1995) The GISP2 18O climate
record of the past 16,500 years and the role of the sun, ocean and
volcanoes.- Quaternary Research 44:341-354. |
|
|
173 |
Svensmark,
H. (2000) Cosmic rays and earth's
Climate.- Space Science Reviews 93: 155-166.
- Abstract:
"During the last solar cycle Earth's cloud cover underwent
a modulation in phase with
the cosmic ray flux. Assuming that there is a causal relationship
between the two, it is expected and
found that Earth's temperature follows more closely decade variations
in cosmic ray flux than other
solar activity parameters. If the relationship is real the state
of the Heliosphere affects Earth's climate."
Full
article
[2.9MB,
12S.]
|
|
|
174 |
Svensmark,
H., J.O.P. Petersen, N. Marsh, M. Enghoff & U. Uggerhoj (2006)
Experimental Evidence for the Role of Ions in Particle Nucleation
under Atmospheric Conditions.- Proceedings of the Royal Socitey
A doi. 1098, rspa October 3rd |
|
|
|
|
175 |
Svensmark,
Henrik & Nigel Calder (2008)
Sterne steuern unser Klima.- Patmos, 251 Seiten, 24,90 Euro. |
|
|
|
|
176 |
Svensmark,
H. und & E. Friis-Christensen (2007)
The Sun still appears to be the main forcing agent in global
climate change. - Reply to Lockwood
and Fröhlich - The persistent role of the Sun in climate
forcing. - DNSC-Scientific report 3/2007.
Full
article
[346,2
KB, 12S.] |
|
|
177 |
Svensmark,
H. und & E. Friis-Christensen (1997) Variation of cosmic ray
flux and global cloud coverage - a missing link in solar-climate relationships.-
J. Atm. Sol. Terr. Phys. 59 (1997), 1225. |
|
|
|
|
178 |
Thejll,
P. & K. Lassen (2000) Solar forcing
of the Northern hemisphere land air temperature: New data.- Journal
of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 62, 1207-1213 (2000).
|
|
|
|
|
179 |
Tietsche,
S., D. Notz, J. H. Jungclaus, and J. Marotzke (2011)
Recovery
mechanisms of Arctic summer sea ice, Geophys. Res. Lett.,
38, L02707, doi:10.1029/2010GL045698.
- Abstract:
"We
examine the recovery of Arctic sea ice from prescribed ice-free
summer conditions in simulations of 21st century climate in an
atmosphereocean general circulation model. We find that
ice extent recovers typically within two years. The excess oceanic
heat that had built up during the ice-free summer is rapidly returned
to the atmosphere during the following autumn and winter, and
then leaves the Arctic partly through increased longwave emission
at the top of the atmosphere and partly through reduced atmospheric
heat advection from lower latitudes. Oceanic heat transport does
not contribute significantly to the loss of the excess heat. Our
results suggest that anomalous loss of Arctic sea ice during a
single summer is reversible, as the icealbedo feedback is
alleviated by large-scale recovery mechanisms. Hence,
hysteretic threshold behavior (or a tipping point)
is unlikely to occur during the decline of Arctic summer sea-ice
cover in the 21st century."
|
|
|
|
|
180 |
Titz,
S. (2007)
Wolkige
Projektionen - Nachweislich zuverlässige Klimavorhersagen
sind noch nicht möglich. Umso mehr wird
die Diskussion über den Klimawandel von ökonomischen und
politischen Interessen bestimmt. Sie sollten offengelegt werden.-
Spektrum der Wissenschaft, April 2007, S. 26-30.
Sehr zu empfehlen, besonders auch die Kommentare
zu diesem Beitrag!! |
|
|
181 |
Titz,
S. (2003) Wie
kosmische Strahlung Wolken beeinflusst.- Welt der Physik. Forschungen
um den Heidelberger Prof. Frank Arnold vom MPI für Kernphysik. |
|
|
|
|
182 |
Toggweiler,
J.R. & J. Russell (2008) Ocean
circulation in a warming climate.- Nature 451, 286-288 (17
January 2008)
- Remarks:
"Climate
models predict that the ocean's circulation will weaken in response
to global warming, but the warming at the end of the last ice
age suggests a different outcome.
(....) There
is an old truism in climate circles that the cold climate at the
Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), which occurred 21,000 years ago, had
stronger winds. This idea fits with the common observation that
it is windier in the winter than in the summer because there is
greater thermal contrast within the atmosphere in the winter hemisphere.
Temperature reconstructions from the LGM show that Equator-to-pole
gradients in sea surface temperature were indeed larger - that
is, the polar oceans were colder than the tropical ocean at the
LGM in comparison with the temperature differences today. ..."
|
|
|
183 |
Tol, R. S. J. & P. Vellinga (1998) Climate
Change, the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect and the Influence of the Sun:
A Statistical Analysis.- Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Volume
61, Issue 1/2, pp. 1-7.
Sehr zu empfehlen, besonders ist auf
die indirekte Aussage zu achten!!
- Abstract:
"Changes in solar activity are regularly forwarded as an
hypothesis to explain the observed global warming over the last
century. The support of such claims is largely statistical, as
knowledge of the physical relationships is limited. The statistical
evidence is revisited. Changing solar activity is a statistically
plausible hypothesis for the observed warming, if short-term natural
variability is the only alternative explanation. Compared to the
enhanced greenhouse effect, the solar hypothesis looses a substantial
part of its plausibility. Reversely, the size and significance
of the estimated impact of the enhanced greenhouse effect on the
global mean temperature is hardly affected by solar activity."
Full
article
[7
S.]
|
|
|
|
|
184 |
University
of Haifa (2010, Jan. 26) The seas
ups and downs.- Publ. by the University
of Haifa and Science
Daily (2010, Febr. 01) Sea
Level in Israel Has Been Rising and Falling Over the Last 2,500
Years.
-
Excerpt:
"The [Mediterranean] sea level in Israel has been
rising and falling over the past 2,500 years, with a one-meter
difference between the highest and lowest levels, most of the
time below the present-day level. This has been shown in a new
study supervised by Dr. Dorit Sivan, Head of the Department
of Maritime Civilizations at the University of Haifa."
(...)
"Seeing
as Israel is not close to former ice caps and the tectonic activity
along the Mediterranean coast is negligible over these periods,
it can be concluded that drastic changes in Israel's sea levels
are mainly related to changes in the volume of water."
(...)
Over
the past century, we have witnessed the sea level in Israel
fluctuating with almost 19 centimeters between the highest and
lowest levels. Over the past 50 years Israels mean sea
level rise is 5.5 centimeters, but there have also been periods
when it rose by 10 centimeters over 10 years. That said, even
acute ups and downs over short periods do not testify to long-term
trends. An observation of the sea levels over hundreds and thousands
of years shows that what seems a phenomenon today is as a matter
of fact
nothing
new under the sun,
Dr. Sivan concludes."
|
|
|
|
|
185 |
Usoskin,
Ilya G. , S. K. Solanki, M. Schüssler, K. Mursula, K. Alanko
(2003)
Millenium Scale Sunspot Reconstruction: Evidence For an Unusually
Active Sun Since the 1940s.- Phys.Rev.Lett. 91 (2003)
211101
[04
S.]
- "The
extension of the sunspot number series backward in time is of
considerable interest for dynamo theory, solar, stellar, and climate
research. We have used records of the Be-10 concentration in polar
ice to reconstruct the average sunspot activity level for the
period between the year 850 to the pr esent. Our method uses physical
models for processes connecting the Be-10 concentration with the
sunspot number. The reconstruction shows reliably that the period
of high solar activity during the last 60 years is unique throughout
the past 1150 years. This nearly triples the time interval
for which such a statement could be made previously."
Source:
http://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0310823v1
[date
of access: 27.04.07]
Längere Zusammenfassung (deutsch) in:
innovationsreport.de
[date
of access: 18.01.07]
d.h.
die Sonne ist seit 1940 so aktiv wie seit 1.150 Jahren nicht
mehr
(Studie des Max-Planck-Instituts für Aeronomie zur Sonnenfleckenaktivität)
|
|
|
185
/1 |
Vahrenholt,
F. & S. Lüning (2012)
Die
kalte Sonne - Warum die Klimakatastrophe nicht stattfindet.-
Hoffmann und Campe (445 S.).
- Vorstellung
des Verlags:
" Der Weltklimarat irrt. Die Klimadebatte muss neu geführt
werden.Entgegen den Prognosen ist die Erderwärmung seit zehn
Jahren zum Stillstand gekommen. Neueste Erkenntnisse belegen,
dass dies maßgeblich durch Ozeanzyklen und durch die Sonne
verursacht ist, die in eine strahlungsarme Phase getreten ist.
In großer Anschaulichkeit zeigen zwei Experten die weitreichenden
Konsequenzen für unser Klima auf. Der Weltklimarat ist sich
sicher: Die Klimaerwärmung ist vom Menschen verschuldet.
Doch sind die berüchtigten Treibhausgase tatsächlich
vornehmlich für unser Klima verantwortlich? Und warum wird
es nicht mehr wärmer? Vahrenholt und Lüning haben sich
im Laufe ihrer Untersuchungen intensiv mit den verschiedenen Klimamodellen
beschäftigt. Sie kommen zu der Auffassung, dass die Erderwärmung
der letzten 150 Jahre Teil eines natürlichen Zyklus ist,
der überwiegend von der Sonne geprägt wird. Die nächsten
Jahrzehnte werden eher zu einer leichten Erdabkühlung als
zu einer weiteren Erwärmung führen. Das bietet Zeit,
erneuerbare Energieträger zielgerichtet auszubauen und diese
Umstellung in ökonomisch vernünftiger Weise und nachhaltig
zu gestalten."
|
|
|
|
|
186 |
van Asselt
M.B.A. & Rotmans J. (2002)
Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Modelling.- Climatic
Change, Volume 54, Numbers 1-2, July 2002 , pp. 75-105.
-
Abstract:
"Integrated Assessment (IA) aims to facilitate decision-making
processes on complex issues. Dealing with uncertainty is principally
at the core of Integrated Assessment. IA practitioners realise
that. However:
-
Not all uncertainties can be adequately addressed with existing
methods and tools. This especially holds for uncertainty in
model structure and uncertainty due to behavioural and societal
variability, value diversity, technological surprise, ignorance
and indeterminacy.
-
Uncertainty is usually treated as a marginal issue, as an
additional physical variable, as a mathematical artifact.
The current methods merely involve evaluation of the impacts
of `certain uncertainties', i.e. uncertainties for which estimates
or probability distributions are available.
-
Current methods give no indication of the magnitude and sources
of the various underlying uncertainties and the aggregated
uncertainty measures are difficult to understand to decision-makers
and other audiences.
Within
the International Centre for Integrative Studies, Maastricht
University (the Netherlands), the research project `Perspectives
on uncertainty and risk' aims to develop alternative, complementary
approaches to uncertainty management in Integrated Assessment.
The current paper summarises the theoretical analysis of the
concept of uncertainty, and it proposes a typology of sources
of uncertainty. This paper further discusses insights and experiences
with pluralistic uncertainty management in the context of Integrated
Assessment modelling in order to assess the strengths and weaknesses
of such an approach. Although systematic fundamental uncertainty
research is still needed in the context of Integrated Assessment,
this paper argues that significant profit in quality terms can
be gained by using the available methods, including the pluralistic
approach, more consciously and systematically."
|
|
|
|
|
187 |
Veizer,
Jan (2005)
Celestial Climate Driver: A Perspective from Four Billion
Years of the Carbon Cycle.- Geoscience Canada, Vol. 32, No. 1,
13-28 (March 2005).
Sehr
zu empfehlen!!
- Full
Article - auch als
[16
S.]
- Abstract:
"The standard explanation for vagaries of our climate,
championed by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change),
is that greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide, are its
principal driver. Recently, an alternative model that the sun
is the principal driver was revived by a host of empirical observations.
Neither atmospheric carbon dioxide nor solar variability can alone
explain the magnitude of the observed temperature increase over
the last century of about 0.6[degrees]C. Therefore, an amplifier
is required. In the general climate models (GCM), the bulk of
the calculated temperature increase is attributed to "positive
water vapour feedback". In the sun-driven alternative, it
may be the cosmic ray flux (CRF), energetic particles that hit
the atmosphere, potentially generating cloud condensation nuclei
(CCN). Clouds then cool, act as a mirror and reflect the solar
energy back into space. The intensity of CRF reaching the earth
depends on the intensity of the solar (and terrestrial) magnetic
field that acts as a shield against cosmic rays, and it is this
shield that is, in mm, modulated by solar activity."
- Acknowledgement:
"In my four decades of research into the evolution of the
Earth, always with strong environmental connotations, I was almost
exclusively financed by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research
Council of Canada (NSERC) and the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
(DFG). In the last decade, particularly relevant to this article,
the research was supported by two major sources, the top research
award of the DFG (Leibniz Prize endowed with 3 million DM) and
the support of the Research Chair in "Earth System"
financed jointly by NSERC and the Canadian Institute for Advanced
Research (CIAR). The donors to CIAR include Noranda and Dr. G.G.
Hatch, with the sponsorship based on an arms' length relationship
via CIAR and NSERC.
Personally,
this last decade has been a trying period because of the years
of internal struggle between what I wanted to believe and where
the empirical record and its logic were leading me. This article
is clearly not a comprehensive review of the alternatives, partly
because of space limitations, but also because the case for
the alternatives was eloquently argued elsewhere (e.g., IPCC,
2001). It is rather a plea for some reflection in our clamour
for over-simplified beliefs and solutions in the face of the
climate conundrum. Due to space considerations, the article
also does not explore the potential role that the lethal CRF
may have played in the evolution of life, as a cause of extinctions
and/or mutations. And above all, this article is not a discussion
of Kyoto, a treaty with social, economic and political aims,
but a scientific treatise of the past climate record. Time will
rule on its validity, but in the meantime I ask that the discussion
of its merits/demerits be confined to scientific ways and means.
As a final point, I am indebted to several experts worldwide,
covering the whole gamut of fields from astrophysics to biology
and modeling, who agreed to read the manuscript in order to
make sure that its statements are scientifically defensible.
The journal reviewers, Brendan Murphy and Alan Hildebrand, helped
to set the tone of the presentation."
|
|
|
188 |
Vieira,
L. E. A. & S. K. Solanki (2010)
Evolution of the solar magnetic flux on time scales of years to
millenia.- A & A, Volume 509, January 2010.
- Abstract
"Aims.
We improve the description of the evolution of the Sun's open
and total magnetic flux on time scales of years to millenia.
Methods.
In the model employed here the evolution of the solar total and
open magnetic flux is computed from the flux emerging at the solar
surface in the form of bipolar magnetic features, which is related
to the sunspot number cycle parameters and can be estimated from
historical records. Compared to earlier versions of the model
in addition to the long-lived open flux, now also a more rapidly
decaying component of the open flux is considered. The model parameters
are constrained by comparing its output with observations of the
total surface magnetic flux and with a reconstruction of the open
magnetic flux based on the geomagnetic indexes. A method to compute
the Sun's total magnetic flux and the sunspot number during the
Holocene, starting from the open flux obtained from cosmogenic
isotopes records, is also presented.
Results.
By considering separately a rapidly evolving and a slowly evolving
component of the open flux the model reproduces the Sun's open
flux, as reconstructed based on the aa-index, much better and
a reasonable description of the radial component of interplanetary
magnetic field data is obtained. The greatest improvement is in
the reproduction of the cyclic variation of the open flux, including
the amplitudes of individual cycles. Furthermore, we found that
approximately 25% of the modeled open flux values since the end
of the Maunder minimum are lower than the averaged value over
2008, i.e. during the current low minimum. The same proportion
is observed in reconstructions of the open flux during the Holocene
based on cosmogenic isotopes, which suggests that the
present solar minimum conditions are below average, but not exceptional
in terms of the heliospheric magnetic flux."
|
|
|
|
|
189 |
Wagner,
F., S. J. P. Bohncke, D. L. Dilcher, W. M. Kürschner, B. van
Geel & H. Visscher (1999) Century-scale shifts in Early Holocene
atmospheric CO2 concentration.- Science 284: 1971-197.
Sehr
zu empfehlen!!
-
Abstract:
"The inverse relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide
concentration and stomatal frequency in tree leaves provides an
accurate method for detecting and quantifying century-scale carbon
dioxide fluctuations. Stomatal frequency signatures of fossil
birch leaves reflect an abrupt carbon dioxide increase at the
beginning of the Holocene. A succeeding carbon dioxide decline
matches the Preboreal Oscillation, a 150-year cooling pulse that
occurred about 300 years after the onset of the Holocene.
In
contrast to conventional ice core estimates of 270 to 280 parts
per million by volume (ppmv), the stomatal frequency signal suggests
that early Holocene carbon dioxide concentrations were well above
300 ppmv."
Full
article
|
|
|
190 |
Wagner,
G., D.M. Livingstone, J. Masarik, R. Muscheler and J. Beer (2001)
Some results relevant to the discussion of a possible link between
cosmic rays and the Earths climate.- J. Geophys. Res., Vol.
106: 3381-8. |
|
|
191 |
Weart,
S. (2008) The Discovery of Global
Warming: Chapter:
The
Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect..-
Harvard University Press (new edition). 2003: ISBN 0674011570. (Überarbeitete
Auflage 2008, ISBN 067403189X.)
|
|
|
192 |
Weber,
G.R. (1992) Treibhauseffekt.
Klimakatastrophe oder Medienpsychose? - E.I.R. (ehemals Dr. Böttiger
Verlags GmbH) |
|
|
193 |
Whitehouse,
David (2007)
The truth is, we can't ignore the sun.- Publ. in Telegraph
Online.
Dr David
Whitehouse is an astronomer, former BBC science correspondent,
and the author of The Sun: A Biography (John Wiley & Sons)
|
|
|
194 |
Wigley,
T. M. L. (1983) The pre-industrial carbon dioxide level.- Climatic
Change, Volume 5, Number 4: 315-320 / Dezember 1983.
-
Abstract:
"Recent indirect data and direct measurements from ice cores
point towards a pre-industrial CO2 level of around
260270 ppmv, considerably below the commonly assumed value
of 290 ppmv. Early measurements from the southern hemisphere tend
to favour the lower value."
|
|
|
|
|
195 |
Willis,
J. K. (2010)
Can
in situ floats and satellite altimeters detect long-term changes
in Atlantic Ocean overturning?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37,
L06602, doi:10.1029/2010GL042372.
-
Abstract:
"Global warming has been predicted to slow the Atlantic
Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), resulting in significant
regional climate impacts across the North Atlantic and beyond.
Here, satellite observations of sea surface height (SSH) along
with temperature, salinity and velocity from profiling floats
are used to estimate changes in the northward-flowing, upper
limb of the AMOC at latitudes around 41°N. The 2004 through
2006 mean overturning is found to be 15.5 ± 2.4 Sv (106
m3/s) with somewhat smaller seasonal and interannual variability
than at lower latitudes. [folgende Hervorhebungen durch
den Autor]
- There
is no significant trend in overturning strength between 2002
and 2009. Altimeter data, however,
suggest an increase of 2.6 Sv since 1993, consistent
with North Atlantic warming during this same period.
- Despite
significant seasonal to interannual fluctuations, these observations
demonstrate that substantial slowing of the AMOC did not occur
during the past 7 years and is unlikely to have occurred in
the past 2 decades."
|
|
|
|
|
196 |
Willson,
R. C. & A.V. Mordvinov (2003)
Secular total solar irradiance trend during solar cycles 21 and 22.-
Geophys. Res. Let., 30, 1199-1202.
-
Abstract:
[4
S.]
"A series of satellite total solar irradiance (TSI) observations
can be combined in a precise solar magnetic cycle length composite
TSI database by determining the relationship between two non-overlapping
components: ACRIM1 and ACRIM2. [Willson and Hudson, 1991; Willson,
1994] An ACRIM composite TSI time series using the Nimbus7/ERB
results [Hoyt et al., 1992] to relate ACRIM1 and ACRIM2 demonstrates
a secular upward trend of 0.05 percent-per-decade between consecutive
solar activity minima. [Willson, 1997] A PMOD TSI composite using
ERBS [Lee et al., 1995] comparisons to relate ACRIM1 and ACRIM2
[Fröhlich and Lean, 1998] differs from the ACRIM composite
in two significant respects: a negligible trend between solar
minima and lower TSI at solar maxima.
Our findings indicate the lower PMOD trend and lower PMOD TSI
at the maxima of solar cycles 22 and 23 are artifacts of ERBS
degradation. Lower PMOD TSI during the maximum of cycle 21 results
from modifications of Nimbus7/ERB and ACRIM1 published results
that produces better agreement with a TSI/solar proxy model [Foukal
and Lean, 1988; Lean et al., 1995; Fröhlich and Lean, 1998]."
Vgl. dazu: Fröhlich (2006) und/oder
"Solar
Constant - Construction of a Composite Total Solar Irradiance
(TSI) Time Series from 1978 to present"
|
|
|
197 |
Willson,
R.C. & N. Scafetta (2007) Solar
Variability III: Total Solar Irradiance Monitoring, Proxy Reconstructions,
and Climate Implications, Co-conveners of special session GC42A (Oral),
2007 AGU Fall Meeting. |
|
|
198 |
Woudhuysen,
J. & J. Kaplinsky (2007)
UN-Bericht
zur Klimaforschung: Lehrstück über den planetaren Untergang?
- Am 2. Februar 2007 veröffentlichte der Zwischenstaatliche
Ausschuss für Klimaänderungen (IPCC) seine Zusammenfassung
eines Berichts zum aktuellen Stand der Klimaforschung. Die Reaktion
auf die Veröffentlichung zeigt, wie stark antihumanistische Affekte
inzwischen die Interpretation wissenschaftlicher Erkenntnisse prägen.
- NOVO-Magazin Nr. 87 (März/April)
[date of access: 22.03.07]
Sehr zu empfehlen!! |
|
|
|
|
199 |
Wunsch,
Carl (2004)Gulf
Stream safe if wind blows and Earth turns.- Correspondence in
Nature 428, 601 (8 April 2004)
- Remarks:
"Your News story "Gulf Stream probed for early warnings
of system failure" (Nature
427, 769; 200410.1038/427769a [2004, by Quirin Schiermeier])
discusses what the climate in the south of England would be like
"without the Gulf Stream". Sadly, this phrase has been
seen far too often, usually in newspapers concerned with the unlikely
possibility of a new ice age in Britain triggered by the loss
of the Gulf Stream.
- European
readers should be reassured that the Gulf Stream's existence
is a consequence of the large-scale wind system over the North
Atlantic Ocean, and of the nature of fluid motion on a rotating
planet. The only way to produce an ocean circulation without
a Gulf Stream is either to turn off the wind system, or to
stop the Earth's rotation, or both.
Real
questions exist about conceivable changes in the ocean circulation
and its climate consequences. However, such discussions are
not helped by hyperbole and alarmism. The occurrence of a climate
state without the Gulf Stream any time soon within tens
of millions of years has a probability of little more
than zero."
Siehe weitere
Publikationen
von und mit Prof. Carl Wunsch (u.a.MIT)
|
|
|
|
|
200 |
Zhen-Shan,
L. and S. Xian (2007) Multi-scale
analysis of global temperature changes and trend of a drop in temperature
in the next 20 years. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 95,
115121. |
|
|
|
|
|
Papers
and articles on climate change and related topics - It covers
papers and articles up to the end of year 2004
(~320 references) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Weiterführende
Links zum Thema "Global Warming" etc. innerhalb dieser Website
( nur
kurze Hinweise!): |
|
|
|
Das
zyklische Auftreten von Kalt- und Warmzeiten im Laufe der Erdgeschichte.
Das zyklische
Auftreten Warm- und Kaltzeiten (150 Mio. Zykluszeit / Eis-Zeitalter)
Das
zyklische Auftreten Warm- und Kaltzeiten (125.000. Zykluszeit / Eiszeit-Zyklus)
Klimaschwankungen
im Jungpleistozän und Holozän und Vegetationsgeschichte
Kurzer
Überblick zur Klimageschichte
Literaturangaben
zur Klimageschichte, kleine Auswahl
Globalklimatische
Grundlagen und Entstehung von Vegetationszonen
Die
glaziale und postglaziale Vegetationsgeschichte Afrikas
Postglaziale
aride und humide Phasen in der Sahara Afrikas
Meeresspiegel
während des LGM (120m unter NN) u. Simulation um +5m ü.NN
Glaziale
bis postglaziale Nordseegeschichte
Entwicklung der Insel
Sylt
Holozäne
Optima und Pessima
2000 Jahre Temperaturentwicklung
der nördlichen Hemisphäre, Bemerkungen zum "Hockeystick"
Sargasso
Sea Surface Temperature (3000 BP - Present)
Der sogenannte Treibhauseffekt
Hurrikane haben nicht immer
Saison
Elektromagnetisches
Spektrum, Strahlungsenergie und Absorption
Die Bedeutung von Kohlendioxid
Der Kohlenstoffkreislauf
- Ein kleiner Einblick
Das zyklische
Auftreten von Sonnenzyklen |
|
|
|
Freundlicher
Hinweis:
Wenn Sie Inhalte dieser
Website zitieren oder diskutieren, was sehr erwünscht ist, bitte
verfälschen Sie nicht die Inhalte durch unvollständige Zitate
bzw. reissen Sie die Inhalte nicht aus dem Zusammenhang, und bitte
geben Sie die Quellen richtig und vollständig an. |
|
|